Ron DeSantis Follows Trump’s Playbook Before 2024

(Trends Wide) – The Russian invasion of Ukraine, unsurprisingly, remains the top story this week. That is likely to be the case as war and devastation continue.

Still, there are stories on the home front that have also been making waves, both from a statistical angle and for their political implications.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis Positions Himself For 2024 Race Against Donald Trump

If we’ve learned anything from the last two presidential cycles, it’s that free media means a lot in presidential primaries. Trump garnered a historic amount of free media attention in 2016, and now-President Joe Biden led the pack of free media on the Democratic side during the 2020 primary season.

DeSantis appears to be the next big beneficiary of “free media.” One of the few non-Ukrainian news stories to emerge in recent weeks was the outcry over new Florida legislation that critics have called “Don’t Say Gay.” (My colleague Zach Wolf has a solid article on what is actually in the bill and what it means.)

In fact, DeSantis continues to outperform non-Trump 2024 candidates in Fox Cable mentions. In roughly the past six months, “DeSantis” has been mentioned 920 to 950 times (depending on what day you start counting from), according to the Internet Archive’s Archive of Television News. “[Mike] Pence” y “[Ted] Cruz” have been mentioned about 900 times combined.

The same thing happened nearly a year ago when I wrote “How the Numbers Show Ron DeSantis Stock Is Rising.” It doesn’t hurt DeSantis that the bill recently passed in Florida is popular with Republicans, both in the state and nationally, and that he is a heavy favorite for re-election as governor this year.

The idea behind my article in 2021 was that DeSantis should be considered a top Republican candidate for 2024, if Trump decided not to run.

At this point, I think we can replace “one of” with “the” in that last sentence. Trump is undoubtedly the favorite for the GOP nomination in 2024 if he does run, but DeSantis is clearly the next most likely candidate.

The Florida governor ranks second in nearly every 2024 national Republican primary poll that includes Trump as an option. He is also the only other Republican to almost always hit double digits in these polls.

When Trump isn’t included, DeSantis has the lead in almost every poll, usually in his mid-20s. That’s pretty similar to where Biden was in early 2020 Democratic primary polls. It’s an enviable position, if not foolproof. .

DeSantis is polling just as well despite not being as well known among voters as Trump and Biden. Nearly 40% of Republicans did not have an opinion on DeSantis, according to a January poll from Marquette University School of Law.

But while Trump had a higher favorability rating among Republicans than DeSantis (74% vs. 52%), DeSantis’s favorability rating among Republicans who were knowledgeable enough to have an opinion was higher than Trump’s. (about 83% vs. 75%).

In fact, the governor is in a much stronger position in the one place voters know both DeSantis and Trump well: Florida. DeSantis and Trump are separated by single digits in an average of polls for a hypothetical 2024 primary in the Sunshine State. Trump calls Florida home now, and he easily won the 2016 Republican primary there over native state Senator Marco Rubio. .

We’ll have to see what happens once Republicans across the country know DeSantis as well as Republicans in Florida.

Violent crime continues to rise in major cities

Another story that made major headlines this week was about a man who senselessly shot homeless people in New York and Washington, DC. While a suspect is under arrest, the fact is that crime continues to be a problem in American cities.

Violent crime increased during the coronavirus pandemic in many American cities. Although we do not know exactly why, it is striking that this increase occurred just as daily life was interrupted.

This year, the pandemic has been less of an issue, but violent crime rates still appear to be rising in the largest American cities.

In New York, the number of violent crime reports is up 27% from this point last year.

In Los Angeles, it’s up 5% since this time last year.

And in Chicago, violent crime reports are up 9% from last year.

All three cities have seen similar (in the case of Los Angeles) or greater (45% in New York and 34% in Chicago) increases in their overall crime rates over the past year.

The good news from the statistics is that the murder (or homicide) rate appears to be low in all three cities. Unfortunately, the murder rate only tells part of the story.

The higher crime rate in these cities is drawing people’s attention. According to a recent Quinnipiac University poll, a record percentage of New York City voters (74%) said crime was a very serious problem. It ranked as the top issue facing the city, according to the survey.

In Washington (where violent crime is up 20% and overall crime is up 9% from this point last year), 36% of residents said the number one problem facing the city and that they want the mayor to solved was crime, violence or guns, according to a recent Washington Post poll. No other issue listed by DC residents as the biggest issue scored more than 14% in the survey.

We’ll see if this eventually translates into crime becoming a bigger national story. As I pointed out in January, it hasn’t yet.

For their short meetings: nobody wants to know about your support for the NCAA

On the lighter side of news, you may be watching or about to watch an NCAA basketball tournament game. If you have any interest in the subject, I suggest you check out my article on the tournament, how much work productivity is lost during March Madness, and the chances of Duke losing.

One thing I will point out is that only about 15% of Americans complete college basketball brackets each year. Given that low percentage, I can assure you that no one really wants to hear how well or poorly you are doing at predicting outcomes.

Question of the week: Are you more excited for the NCAA tournament or the start of Major League Baseball in April? tell us here and we will inform you of the results next week.

Last week’s results: I asked you all last week for your thoughts on how to change the clocks for daylight saving time.

Most of you were in favor of making daylight saving time permanent. For example, Chris Peterson tweeted: “Summer time throughout the year, but time zones must shift several hundred kilometers to the east to ensure winter sunrise times are within a reasonable window.”

A vocal minority was in favor of maintaining standard time throughout the year. “It is natural time, defined by the sun and longitude. Why fight nature instead of working with it?” Kristen Tullo tweeted.

Y Mark Pritchard came up with this novel idea: “What we need is weekend saving time. The clocks are turned forward one hour every Friday at 4:00 pm: suddenly it’s 5:00 pm and the weekend! sleep time before Monday “.

Little did he know then that the United States Senate would heed his calls and vote by unanimous consent to make daylight saving time a year-round affair. We’ll see what the House and Biden do about it.

leftover surveys

Sleeping problems: Do you have trouble sleeping? If so, you are not alone. Only 32% of American adults said they slept excellent or very well the night before, according to a new Gallup poll. That compares with 33% who reported “fair” or “poor” sleep. (The rest said “okay.”) More Americans under 50 (38%) said they slept well or poorly than those over 65 (24%).

Masks at work: just 39% of American workers said their workplaces had mask mandates last week, according to an Axios/Ipsos survey. At no other time since the question was first asked in August 2021 had that percentage fallen below the majority. This comes as Covid-19 rates are rising in Europe and signs are emerging of the potential for similar spikes in parts of the United States.

French presidential elections: Last week, I noted that Biden seemed to be benefiting from a “rally around the flag” effect after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. One politician who is definitely getting a ratings bounce from him is French President Emmanuel Macron. He faces re-election in about three weeks, and polls now show him above 30% in the first round, well ahead of the competition. Provided he finishes in the top two before a possible second round, Macron will be a heavy favorite for a second term.