Russia in Ukraine.. Redrawing the maps of influence | opinions

After Russia launched in late February what it called a special military operation in Ukraine, it is no longer important to many today, the name given to the ongoing military conflict in Ukraine, as it is in all cases the most severe and most dangerous in Europe after World War II, because of its historical roots The deep, and its various dimensions, including the internal Ukrainian dimension, the Russian-Ukrainian dimension, in addition to the broader dimensions related to relations between Moscow and the West in general, which go beyond the borders of Ukraine in their importance and repercussions.

Today begins a new chapter in the modern history of Europe, with its challenges, opportunities, victories, defeats, gains and losses, and there are many unexpected things awaiting everyone.

For Russia, this is a defining moment in history. The future of Russia, and indeed the future of the world order, is at stake. The result of the ongoing military operation in Ukraine is more than decisive for Moscow, as the hidden dimension is no less than an existential war, not only for Russia’s existence, but also for the nature of that presence, and the nature of Russia’s global position.

The West’s response to Moscow was not military, but through a comprehensive economic war of destruction, through unprecedented devastating sanctions packages, and work to isolate Russia from its regional environment and international scope, with the aim of destabilizing its political and social stability, after striking the Russian economy and trying to paralyze it, and in parallel with the path of strengthening Military and financial support for Ukraine.

Although the rhetoric of many Western leaders in the European Union still contains the thesis that security in Europe cannot be done without Russia, in fact NATO has moved constantly to make the “containment” of Moscow the primary objective and main justification for maintaining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. In the twenty-first century, the rest of Ukraine appears to be positioned as a shield against the “Russian threat” in these plans and actions.

Today begins a new chapter in the modern history of Europe, with its challenges, opportunities, victories, defeats, gains and losses, and there are many unexpected things awaiting everyone.

China will make great efforts to improve its economic security, based on the experience of Western sanctions against Russia, in preparation in the event of similar complications with the West. At the same time, one of Beijing’s eyes is watching Russia’s experience in eastern Ukraine, and the Western reaction to it, and the other eye surrounds Taiwan.

The Russian military operation in Ukraine raises, among many things, the issue of comparing and balancing the losses and gains of the main parties in the conflict, as well as global players, and such comparison and balance seems not to have been achieved yet for Russia and Ukraine. Russia continues its military operation, and Ukraine has not surrendered, and it has not The two countries are entering a political settlement yet, which means that it is still difficult to determine to what extent each side will be able to achieve the political goals for which they have paid so dearly, both in human lives and in terms of massive damage to the economy.

So far, it is clear that the European Union bears the most losses and the largest costs, due to the nature of the link in trade and economic relations with Russia, and the main challenge is the replacement of Russian oil, gas and minerals in the European market.

The European bloc also bears the brunt of dealing with Ukrainian refugees, and we are still in the beginnings of the military conflict, and the calculation is still difficult due to the rapid changes in the situation, but it is already clear that the number is in the millions.

Since the entry of the military dimension to the Ukrainian crisis, the features of a new map of influence and security in Europe began to be formed, and the danger in it is that it is the result of military action, and not according to agreements or treaties, and this military dimension has revived old ideas about the importance of armament and the necessity of military spending, and today most countries will work The European Union actively increased defense spending, and US President Joe Biden succeeded in what previous American presidents: Donald Trump, Barack Obama and George Bush failed to do, which is to make the European countries’ contribution to NATO greater.

At first glance, it seems that the United States bears much lower costs in confronting Russia than the European Union, although the Russian oil embargo may lead to domestic difficulties and increase fuel prices at home, but Washington’s main problems lie in other areas.

The sharp escalation of the confrontation with Russia will divert resources from Asia and the Pacific, and the United States will have to increase its military presence in Europe, which means that Washington’s focus on containing China is currently declining, and the United States is also concerned about the possibility of an escalation of the Ukrainian crisis to A war between NATO and Russia, this – at the very least – is fraught with the risk of nuclear escalation, and Washington will have to contain Moscow, but at the same time work within certain limits, lest it escalate further.

In the midst of the complexity of the development of events between Moscow and the West in the context of the conflict in and over Ukraine, it is clear that the United States has given priority to containing Russia instead of China, and it is certain that there are many reasons behind this, perhaps the most prominent of which is Washington’s view that Russia is weaker than China, and pressure on it will be easier, Economically and technically, given that Russia did not have this pivotal role in the global economy, compared to the complex economic interdependence that characterizes Western-Chinese relations, regardless of Moscow’s role as a major energy supplier to Europe, so the United States may have bet that it will be less expensive to start with Russia to pressure It has its junior partners to “separate” them from it, in addition to its belief that the containment of Russia is a prerequisite for the eventual containment of China.

It remains to be said that it is too early and difficult to predict where things are heading, and the future development of events will be linked to the final result of Russia’s military operation, as well as the continuation of the unified position of the West that it demonstrated by imposing rapid and successive packages of sanctions on Russia.