Russia is threatening ‘retaliatory measures’ if the U.S. reject their security demands and continues ‘aggressive’ policies after Joe Biden said on Tuesday he would consider personal sanctions against Russian President Vladimir Putin if he invades Ukraine
Russia warned Wednesday it would take swift ‘retaliatory measures’ against the U.S. and its allies if they reject their security demands and continue ‘aggressive’ policies as international concerns heighten that Moscow will invade Ukraine.
‘If the West continues its aggressive course, Moscow will take the necessary retaliatory measures,’ Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Wednesday.
Some of Russia’s demands include guarantees Ukraine and other formerly Soviet nations will never enter the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) alliance and assurances that the group will roll back troop deployment in ex-Soviet bloc countries.
The U.S. is prepared to send answers to the demands Wednesday, administration officials told CNN. But the U.S. and allies have already made clear they will reject some of Russia’s top demands.
While the response will outline areas where Washington is willing to work with Moscow, like missile placement and greater transparency, it will fall short of meeting top requests like banning Ukraine and other countries from joining NATO.
The demands come as President Joe Biden has made a direct threat to Russian President Vladimir Putin, warning of rare personal sanctions against the leader. Britain’s foreign secretary Liz Truss also said she is ‘not ruling out’ imposing personal sanctions against Putin, but Russia hit back at the threats.
The U.S. is considering targeting Putin and his inner circle, as well as threatening export restrictions on artificial intelligence, quantum computing and aerospace, and offering to shore up Europe’s supply of natural gas.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed the threats as worthless because senior Russian officials are barred from holding assets abroad.
Direct U.S. sanctions on foreign leaders are rare but not unprecedented, with Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro, Syria’s Bashar al-Assad and Libya’s Muammer Gaddafi also punished. Measures have previously included blocking property and transactions related to the leaders’ countries, and targeting his inner circle.
Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Biden was asked if he would consider imposing sanctions on Putin directly if Russia invaded Ukraine. ‘Yes,’ he responded. ‘I would see that.’
Peskov publicly responded with: ‘Politically, it’s not painful, it’s destructive.’
The Kremlin has previously said any U.S. sanctions personally targeting Putin would be crossing a red line, warning the move could result in a rupture of bilateral ties.
Putin’s detailed demands, at least in part, are a nonstarter for NATO – including the pledge to reject membership into the alliance from certain nations. This could already create a stalemate that many fear could end in war.
Speaking to lawmakers Wednesday, Lavrov said he and other Kremlin officials will advise Putin on the next steps after receiving written replies from the U.S. on its demands.
Lavrov indicated it wouldn’t wait forever for a response, saying: ‘We won’t allow our proposals to be drowned in endless discussions.’
Answers are expected this week, but the U.S. and allies have already made clear they will reject some of Russia’s top demands.
Lavrov’s deputy refused to rule out earlier this month deploying Russian military assets to Cuba and Venezuela if Moscow’s security demands aren’t met, a threat that hits far closer to home for the U.S.
Several rounds of diplomatic talks have failed to produce breakthroughs in the standoff, but another attempt is going forward Wednesday as presidential advisers from Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany are set to meet in Paris to discuss ways to revive a stalled peace agreement for eastern Ukraine.
Peskov said Moscow expects a ‘good frank’ talk.
Russia has repeatedly denied it has any intentions to invade Ukraine, claiming the crisis is being driven by NATO and U.S. actions. But their strategic stance tells a different story as Putin built-up around 100,000 troops near the shared border with Ukraine in conjunction to launching a series of war games in the region.
Russia has repeatedly claimed it does not plan to invade Ukraine, but Putin has already built up a force of more than 100,000 troops at the eastern border of Ukraine and has thousands stationed elsewhere as tensions escalate
Speaking to reporters at a store Tuesday in Washington, D.C., President Joe Biden was asked if he would consider imposing sanctions on Putin directly if Russia invaded Ukraine. ‘Yes,’ he responded. ‘I would see that’
A batch of U.S. cargo, including anti-tank missile systems and ammunition, landed in Ukraine Tuesday night as part of a $200 million security package
NATO said this week it was bolstering its deterrence in the Baltic region. The Pentagon also announced Monday that it put 8,500 U.S. troops on heightened alert for potential deployment to Eastern Europe and the Baltics. Defense Department Spokesperson John Kirby said Tuesday they are not ruling out putting more troops on standby.
Reportedly, Biden is considering deployment of up to 50,000 U.S. forces should Russia invade Ukraine.
Western nations have also sent planeloads of weapons to help Ukraine strengthen its defenses. The U.S. sent a huge $200 million shipment of arms to Ukraine to help shore up defenses in preparation for a potential invasion.
Three cargo planes have landed in Kyiv, with the latest arriving Tuesday night, carrying Javelin anti-tank missiles, launchers and other military hardware, in the massive muscle flexing exercise to warn Putin that he faces full U.S. arms.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov tweeted: ‘Javelins in Kyiv! A new cargo of security aid – launchers & missiles – with a total weight of about 80 tons. We expect the arrival of the 4th from the big flock of birds soon. Thanks to our strategic partner.’
Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in an effort to calm nerves over rising tensions said Wednesday that while the concentration of Russian troops near Ukraine poses a threat, ‘their number is now insufficient for a large-scale offensive’.
‘They are still missing some key military elements and systems to mount a big, full-scale offensive,’ Kuleba told reporters, noting Russia likely hopes to destabilize Kyiv by ‘spreading panic, raising pressure on Ukraine’s financial system and launching cyberattacks.’
‘President Putin would be happy to see that plan succeed so that he doesn’t even need to turn to military force to put Ukraine in a vulnerable position,’ he said.
Speaking late Tuesday in a televised speech to the nation, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine was ‘strong enough to keep everything under control and derail any attempts at destabilization.’Â
The new cargo of security aid including launchers and missiles weighs around 80 tons and will help bolster Ukraine’s defenses. The U.S. has committed more than $650 million of security assistance to Ukraine in the past year and more than $2.7 billion in total since 2014
A U.S. plane carrying military equipment and munitions landed in Kyiv, the third installment of a $200million package to shore up Ukraine’s defenses
Moscow sees the former Soviet republic as a buffer between Russia and NATO countries.
If Russia were to move into Ukraine, Biden said it would be the ‘largest invasion since World War Two’ and would ‘change the world.’Â
The Pentagon has put on alert about 8,500 U.S. troops in Europe and the United States to be ready to deploy to NATO’s eastern flank if needed.
Aside from the personal sanctions, the US has also threatened to impose a novel export control to deprive Russia of key tech components that would damage AI and aerospace industries.
That control is aimed at blocking the export of cutting-edge ‘novel’ American-made products to Russia, in a bid to deprive Putin’s regime of technology that could be used in any future conflict with Ukraine.
Officials said the Biden Administration may also opt to apply the control to restrict Russia’s access to semiconductors, and therefore making it harder for Russians to get their hands on smartphones, games consoles and tablets.
The US and the EU already have sanctions on Russia’s energy, financial and defense sectors, with tensions between Moscow and Western powers raising the prospect of new economic sanctions being imposed if Russia attacks neighboring Ukraine.
The White House is also floating the idea of curbs on Russia’s biggest banks and has previously mooted measures targeting Moscow’s ability to convert roubles into dollars and other currencies.
Washington could also target the state-backed Russian Direct Investment Fund.
Similar restrictions on technology were deployed during the Cold War, when the United States and other Western nations maintained severe technology sanctions on the Soviet Union, keeping it technologically backward and crimping growth.
Biden is also considering targeting the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and has pledged to shore up Europe’s supply of natural gas if Putin cuts off supplies.
But Samantha Gross, the Director of Energy Security and Climate Initiative at the Brookings Institution, told DailyMail.com that the imitative was doomed to failure.
‘If Russia were to completely turn off the taps we can’t make that up. Other suppliers can’t make that up. It’s just not physically possible,’ she said.
Russia said it was watching with great concern and accused Washington of fuelling tensions over Ukraine, repeating its line that the crisis was being driven by U.S. and NATO actions rather than by its own build-up of forces near the Ukrainian border.
Biden said on Tuesday he may deploy U.S. troops in the nearer term but ruled out sending unilateral U.S. forces to Ukraine, which is not a NATO member.
‘There is not going to be any American forces moving into Ukraine,’ he said.
So far, NATO has about 4,000 troops in multinational battalions in Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia and Poland, backed by tanks, air defenses and intelligence and surveillance units.
As Western leaders appeal for unity, differences have emerged among European nations over how best to respond.Â
Putin is due to meet Wednesday with the heads of some of the biggest companies in Italy, Russia’s fifth biggest trading partner, despite the rising tensions.
‘It is absolutely vital that… the West is united now, because it is our unity now that will be much more effective in deterring any Russian aggression,’ British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said, adding Britain was discussing with the United States the possibility of banning Russia from the SWIFT global payments system.
French President Emmanuel Macron said he would seek clarification over Russia’s intentions in a phone call with Putin set for Friday. Political advisers from Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France are due to meet in Paris on Wednesday.
With fears of a new Russian military assault high after its invasion of Crimea in 2014, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his compatriots on Tuesday to stay calm and said work was underway to bring about a meeting between him and the leaders of Russia, Germany and France.
‘There are no rose-colored glasses, no childish illusions, everything is not simple. … But there is hope,’ Zelenskiy said in a televised address. ‘Protect your body from viruses, your brain from lies, your heart from panic.’
In Washington, senior Biden administration officials said the United States was in talks with major energy-producing countries and companies around the world over a potential diversion of supplies to Europe if Russia invades Ukraine.
The EU depends on Russia for around a third of its gas supplies. Any interruptions to its Russian imports would exacerbate an existing energy crisis caused by shortages.
‘We’ve… been working to identify additional volumes of non-Russian natural gas from North Africa and the Middle East, Asia, and the United States,’ White House spokesperson Jen Psaki told reporters.
‘We’re in discussion with major natural gas producers around the globe to understand their capacity and willingness to temporarily surge natural gas output and to allocate these volumes to European buyers,’ she said.
Psaki and other officials did not name specific countries or companies but said they included a broad range of suppliers, including sellers of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
An escalated conflict would likely further increase energy costs for many countries, keeping headline inflation rates elevated for longer, said Gita Gopinath, first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund.
A load of hot air: Experts say Biden’s offer to replace Europe’s gas supplies if Putin turns off the taps ‘is just not physically possible’ – because ‘there’s not enough gas out there’Â
Experts have warned that President Joe Biden’s plan to shore up Europe’s supply of natural gas if Vladimir Putin cuts off supplies won’t work because other nations can’t make up the shortfall.
The Biden administration Tuesday said it is preparing to source gas from other countries in case Russia cuts off energy supplies – a scenario European allies fear will come to pass if Moscow invades the Ukraine.
However, Samantha Gross, the Director of Energy Security and Climate Initiative at the Brookings Institution, told DailyMail.com that the imitative was doomed to failure.  Â
‘If Russia were to completely turn off the taps we can’t make that up. Other suppliers can’t make that up. It’s just not physically possible,’ she said.  Â
The US is thought to be hoping Qatar, which has the world’s third largest gas reserve, will help.
But it is already producing at full capacity and most of its cargoes are sent to Asia under long-term contracts that it can’t break, Bloomberg News reported.  Â
Amir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani of Qatar will visit President Biden next Monday in Washington D.C., the White House announced on Tuesday. Among the topics of conversation will be ‘ensuring the stability of global energy supplies.’Â Â Â Â
The concern is Putin would cut off Europe’s supply chain in retaliation for any economic sanctions the United States has vowed to impose in the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Russia exports a large amount of natural gas to Europe through its pipeline system that runs through Ukraine – exports that would likely be severely disrupted by a war.
American officials have spent the last six to eight weeks putting together a global strategy exploring options to redirect and increase gas supplies from different parts of the world to its NATA allies as part of President Biden’s plan to reassure them he won’t leave them out in the cold.Â
However, there is some skepticism the U.S. plan will be enough.
Europe is ‘in a pickle now,’ Gross said, ‘and there’s not enough gas out there to make up the difference.’
Gas prices in European soared more than 30% early this month as colder weather approached and the Russian supply line slowed down amid tensions with the West over the Ukraine.Â
Biden is also considering deploying up to 50,000 US troops to Eastern Europe to ward off Russian aggression.
But as the issue consumes his time, energy and soon military forces, America’s arch-foes appear to be testing him.
North Korea launched two cruise missiles tests on Tuesday, for the fifth time this month in a huge ramping up of their efforts.Â
Iran-backed rebels launched a rocket attack on an air base housing 2,000 US soldiers on Monday, forcing Patriot defense system to swing into action.  Â
Two inbound missiles were knocked out of the sky. Â
And China is testing US resolve over Taiwan and free passage through the South China Straits to the extent that the US has deployed two aircraft carriers to the area to ensure that Beijing does not try to exploit the potential Ukraine invasion.Â
The European Union depends on Russia for around a third of its gas supplies. And natural gas is a major source of revenue for Russia. The White House argues Putin wouldn’t cut off a reliable customer base and steady income stream at a time of record profits.
And Germany, for example, is the biggest buyer of Russian gas in the world. It draws more than half of its gas imports from Russia against around 40 per cent on average for the European Union, according to the EU’s statistics agency Eurostat.Â
It is one nation that could feel the freeze of a natural gas shortage.Â
‘The gas from Russia cannot be replaced in the short term,’ Markus Krebber, CEO of one of Germany’s largest utilities, RWEÂ AG, said at the Handelsblatt Energy Summit this month, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Compounding the problem, natural gas reserves in Europe are at a record low level.
Gas Infrastructure Europe, an industry association, announced earlier this monthat that European gas inventories had dropped below the key 50% mark of total capacity, down to 49.33% as of Jan. 12.Â
It’s the earliest the half-empty mark has ever been reached, beating the previous record by seven days.
When it comes to natural gas, Russia possesses 27.5% of the world’s reserves, according to the Marshall Center.Â
The next closest in terms of proven resources are Iran, with 15.9% of world reserves, and Qatar, with 14.9%. No other individual country accounts for more than four percent of world gas reserves.Â
Biden, pictured above eating ice cream on Tuesday, is also considering deploying up to 50,000 US troops to Eastern Europe to ward off Russian aggression
The United States is working with energy producers in the Middle East – including Qatar – Asia and North Africa to ensure Europe has enough supplies in case Russia cuts off availability.Â
Qatar provides about 5% of Europe’s natural gas.Â
But Qatar, one of the world’s largest energy suppliers, wouldn’t be able to help out if Putin turns off the gas. Â
The Middle East nation, one of the largest exporters of liquefied natural gas in the world, is already producing at full capacity and most of its cargoes are sent to Asia under long-term contracts that it can’t break, Bloomberg News reported.
And Qatar doesn’t want to compromise those contracts to help out the U.S. and Europe.
Qatar Energy, the state-controlled company, sells some liquified natural gas on the spot market, which European customers could purchase. But it’s not enough to make much difference, experts say. Â
White House press secretary Jen Psaki declined to address Qatar’s situation when asked about it at her press briefing on Tuesday, saying the U.S. was looking at many options and contingencies.
The American ‘strategy is not based on any one individual country or entity. It’s a broad approach that includes engagement with Europeans as well as suppliers in North Africa and Middle East Asia,’ she said.
Senior administration officials, on the briefing call with reporters on Tuesday, declined to provide specifics on what countries and companies they are in talks with about upping natural gas supplies, saying they don’t want to ‘telegragh and inform’ Putin of their moves and noted the talks are ‘very sensitive discussions.’
But the official said they were looking at companies that could increase the energy production they are already doing.Â
‘We’re looking at is to make sure that there are some suppliers that are able to bring on volumes into Europe through pipelines and by increasing their production,’ the senior administration official.Â
The official said the talks were happening on a global level with multiple countries and companies.
‘You don’t need to ask anyone to any one individual company or country to surge exports by significant volumes, but rather smaller volumes from from a multitude of sources,’ the official said. ‘By combining this broader picture, we’re able to bring enough gas to supply the amount that we need.’Â
However, officials concede re-routing supplies could take anywhere from several days to a week or two, meaning Europe could see some temporary pain. Â
European allies are worried that Vladimir Putin would cut off their supply chain in retaliation for any economic sanctions the United States has vowed to impose in the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine
The European Union depends on Russia for around a third of its gas supplies – above the starting point for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline
Workers unload a shipment of U.S. military aid and security assistance delivered to the Boryspil airport outside Kyiv, Ukraine, Tuesday, January 25
American officials warned Tuesday that Putin would be hurting himself the most with a cutoff to his European customers, pointing out that Russia’s economy depends on its energy exports.Â
‘If Russia decides to weaponize its supply of natural gas or crude oil, it wouldn’t be without consequences to the Russian economy,’ a senior administration official said.Â
‘Remember, oil and gas export revenues are two thirds of the total in Russia and about half of Russia’s federal budget revenues. So this is not an asymmetric advantage for Putin,’ the official argued.
‘He is creating a major incentive for Europe to accelerate the diversification of their energy supplies away from Russia,’ the official noted.Â
Gazprom, the Russian state-owned natural gas giant that runs the Yamal-Europe pipeline, a major conduit of Russian gas into Germany, said it is meeting its contractural obligations to its European customers.Â
But what it isn’t doing is, as it does normally in winter, is to offer gas on the spot market to ease shortages – a move some argue is Russia’s way of manufacturing a gas crisis for political leverage over Ukraine.
As European allies fretted over natural gas supplies, a new batch of U.S. military aid and security assistance was delivered to the Boryspil airport outside Kyiv, Ukraine on Tuesday.
The latest shipment includes equipment and ammunition and comes in tandem with actions by other NATO member governments to bolster a defensive presence in Eastern Europe.
Meanwhile, American officials are also vowing harsher sanctions from the start should Russia invade its neighbor, taking a much tougher approach than the response to Russian aggression in 2014.
‘The gradualism of the past is out. And this time, we’ll start at the top of the escalation ladder and stay there,’ a senior administration official said on the briefing call. Â
The United States is also threatening to impose a novel export control to deprive Russia of key tech components that would damage AI and aerospace industries if Russia were to invade Ukraine.Â
That control is aimed at blocking the export of cutting-edge ‘novel’ American-made products to Russia, in a bid to deprive Putin’s regime of technology that could be used in any future conflict with Ukraine.Â
‘You can think of these export controls as trade restrictions in the service of broader U.S. national security interests. We use them to prohibit the export of products from the U.S. to Russia, and potentially certain foreign made products that fall under U.S. export regulations,’ a senior administration official said on Tuesday’s briefing call with reporters.
Officials said the Biden administration may also opt to apply the control to restrict Russia’s access to semiconductors, and therefore making it harder for Russians to get their hands on smartphones, games consoles and tablets.Â
The U.S. and the EU already have sanctions on Russia’s energy, financial and defense sectors, with tensions between Moscow and Western powers raising the prospect of new economic sanctions being imposed if Russia attacks neighboring Ukraine.
The White House is also floating the idea of curbs on Russia’s biggest banks and has previously mooted measures targeting Moscow’s ability to convert rubles into dollars and other currencies.Â
Such export controls that expand U.S. sanctions beyond financial targets have only been deployed once before against Huawei, the Chinese tech giant.
The measures, implemented over fears its products were being used to spy on behalf of China’s communist government, went towards Huawei experiencing a 30 percent drop in annual revenue – its first ever. Â
Senior administration officials pointed out there is only so much economic pain Russia can take.
Putin’s ‘tolerance for economic pain, it may be higher than other leaders, but there is a threshold of pain above which we think is calculus can be influenced,’ an official said on Tuesday’s call.
A serviceman stands holding his machine-gun in a trench on the territory controlled by pro-Russian militants at frontline with Ukrainian government forces in Slavyanoserbsk, Luhansk region, eastern Ukraine on Tuesday
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