Moscow- to intervene Russia The year 2024 has a heavy legacy from the files of the past year, during which it lived in a state similar to a race against time to confront the repercussions of more than one sensitive file on its national security and internal situation, with Russian observers confirming successes in this context, but these risks – nevertheless – still exist.
The developments that Russia witnessed in the year 2023 were not limited to war with… Ukraine Without achieving a decisive breakthrough, the flow of Western sanctions continues, and even includes taking steps towards a new alliance space that includes countries that chose to be outside the scope of Western sanctions against… Moscow.
This nominates 2024 to be the year of Russia’s repositioning in alternative geopolitical systems, whether in the former Soviet space, or other vital arenas, including The Middle East.
New challenge
The year 2023 had barely completed its final days when a new challenge came from the Western Front, this time from… Finlandwhich took a new escalatory stance against Moscow by allowing the deployment of American bases on its territory, coinciding with the closure of all border crossings with it.
In response, the Russian President vowed Vladimir Putin Finland is “in trouble” by announcing the decision to re-establish the Leningrad Military District, which heralds a new confrontation on the country’s western borders, which are now closer than ever to the lines of contact with American and NATO forces.
The most prominent file for the Russians remains the ongoing war with Ukraine, which is approaching its third year without any political horizon for stopping it, with Russian observers reading that the crisis has reached the point of no return.
According to strategic expert, Roland Bigamov, it is unlikely that the war will end during the current year.
In a statement to Al Jazeera Net, he says that it will become clear – next February – the amount of military and financial aid it will receive. Kyiv From Western countries, stressing that in any case it will be less than 2023, which will depend on the capabilities of the Ukrainian forces to launch a new counterattack, and thus the Russian army’s ability to achieve decisiveness.
He adds that the final position on supporting Ukraine in the war with Russia will take a new direction at the end of 2024 with the presidential elections in United State The current administration changed White HouseFor a new team that will be less enthusiastic in supporting Kiev.
International politics and alliances
Russian observers are betting that countries Africa Latin America is able to unite in a new organization – a treaty or alliance under the name “NATO” metaphorically – which could constitute a new vector for a multipolar world order, and a counterweight to NATO countries (NATO).
According to the professor of international relations, Alexei Mukhin, the most important feature of Russia’s foreign policy in 2023 is the ability to predict, which was demonstrated by the fact that it is one of the few countries that did not abolish international law or some of its rules to please the West, and faced a process of guardianship. Washington and its partners on the reality and future of international relations.
On this basis, Mukhin expects 2024 to be a year of widespread realignment in which new alliances will shift significantly in favor of Moscow.
Internally, it is expected that the presidential elections scheduled for next March 17 will be the most important internal election in the new year, especially after Putin confirmed his candidacy for them.
According to Russian affairs analyst, Vitaly Ivanov, Putin’s victory in the elections has become almost inevitable, given the steps he took to confront the repercussions of sanctions and pressure, and the decision to go for the option of war with Ukraine to confront the threats to which Russian national security was almost exposed after the West rejected security guarantees. These are steps – according to His opinion – was well received by Russian public opinion ready for re-election.
Moreover, Ivanov believes that Putin’s re-election will constitute a reassuring factor for citizens, who, although the past year was not easy for them, the package of countermeasures made it easier for them to cope with economic fluctuations.
War economy and sanctions
According to official estimates, the Russian economy is expected to grow by 1.1% in 2024 and 1% in 2025, which is almost the same data reported by a report. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
The Bank of Russia expects GDP growth in the range of 0.5 and 1.5% in 2024, and in the range of 1 and 2% in 2025.
Economist Victor Lashon says that sanctions will continue to be applied to Russia in 2024, with the risk of them being tightened at the end of March 2024, which could negatively affect the economy.
However, according to Lashon, the situation in Europe is no better, especially because of immigrants. Moreover, this deterioration may be countered indirectly through Russia’s interaction with… China whose relations with the West are escalating due to an issue TaiwanAnd I became more embarrassed.
The economist points out that this factor will stimulate progress towards creating new alliances and a new currency. However, the results of this will not be noticeable until the last years of this decade.
He adds that the ruble (the Russian local currency) witnessed an unprecedented storm in 2023. However, the monetary authorities were able to neutralize the impact of the restrictive measures and prevent the depletion of the Russian treasury.
In his opinion, even the oil embargo and price ceilings were unable to bring down the Russian economy. On the contrary, the GDP recovery to the 2021 level has been achieved. As for the labor market, wages continue to rise and unemployment falls to a record level.
The demographic situation in Russia remains one of the main problems for which a final solution has not been found, or its social and economic impacts have not been significantly reduced. In recent years, the number of births has continued to decline, while the retirement age is rising as well as life expectancy.
However, according to social affairs researcher Vladimir Koshul, immigration represented one of the possible solutions to the demographic problem, but it remained an unstable process.
The same researcher explains that the number of regular immigrants who come to work is increasing, but – on the other hand – there is a reluctance to work in Russia among residents of neighboring countries, due to the decline in the ruble’s exchange rate against hard currencies, which has made the country lose a large part of its attractiveness to foreign workers. .
