A Russian newspaper expected that Moscow would be the main beneficiary of the war in the Middle East, noting that some Western writers say that without making any significant effort, Moscow is reaping the benefits of regional chaos in 3 main areas, namely the campaign against… UkrainePlans in the Middle East, the war of global narratives with Western countries.
The Russian newspaper “Nezavisimaya” indicated that global markets rule out the end of the Palestinian-Israeli war in the near future, and also expect Iran or Saudi Arabia to be drawn into the conflict, which explains why global prices for oil and gold continue to rise, with oil prices expected to reach $150 per barrel.
Fear that Iran’s exports will stop
Nezavisimaya adds that one of the main concerns of the oil market is Iran’s involvement in the Middle East conflict, noting that although the current events in the region do not directly affect oil supplies, many fear the interruption of exports from Iran in the future.
The newspaper stated that the worst scenario – according to economic experts – is the outbreak of a large-scale war in which major powers such as the United States participate, as Israel engages in a direct conflict with Iran, and quotes Bloomberg Economics experts as saying, “If this happens, it is expected that the global gross domestic product will decline.” By nearly a trillion dollars, which will lead to a recession in the global economy.”
Expected repercussions of the continuation of the war
The same newspaper quoted Olga Belinkaya, a Russian economist, as saying that the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East will definitively affect the decline in tourist flows, the postponement of investment decisions, the increase in the cost of insurance for goods, and the threat of an increase in refugee flows. The disruption of energy supplies due to the expansion of the conflict may lead to a new jump in global oil prices.
She concludes her report by saying that Europe and Britain continue to rely on energy imports, which has greatly increased the global debt burden. Therefore, high interest rates could lead to a wave of defaults, but in the event of a serious shock to the global economy, demand for raw materials will decline, threatening a decline in Russian export revenues.