© Reuters. Santander manager expects peak inflation in the first quarter of 2023
Madrid, Nov 23 (.).- Santander (BME:) Wealth Management & Insurance expects the inflation peak to be reached in the first quarter of 2023, which will favor central banks to curb interest rate rises, and later, the recovery of the markets.
Santander Wealth Management & Insurance, which brings together the bank’s private banking, asset management and insurance business, has presented this Wednesday the 2023 Market Outlook Report, a year for which it expects a notable but orderly economic slowdown process, far from the global recession experienced in 2008.
After an exceptional year 2022, with unprecedented punishments for both fixed income and variable income, the manager believes that the keys to the recovery of the market will be reaching the inflation peak, pausing the rises in central bank rates , and the “pivot” of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in these rises in the price of money.
Regarding inflation, he considers that prices are already going to moderate, and although he expects a recovery in several phases, he estimates that the turning point will be reached in the first quarter of 2023, which will open the door for interest rates to reach maximums, and to the recovery of fixed income.
Regarding this type of asset, the manager considers that it has already begun to be an investment alternative since after the harsh adjustment that occurred in 2022, many opportunities have opened up.
In this sense, the manager is positive regarding short-term fixed income, but more cautious in equities, since, as it has assured, although the adjustment of company profit expectations has begun, it has not yet finalized.
The global head of Santander Wealth Management & Insurance, Víctor Matarranz, has assured that in equities they remain cautious pending progress in the adjustment of company benefits, and has said that it is probable that they will continue to be reviewed downward in line with the prospects for an economic slowdown in 2023.
Thus, the manager rules out raising its bet on equities in the face of volatility that, in its opinion, will continue until the rate hikes reach their peak.
On the selective main of the Spanish Stock Market, the , Santander Wealth Management & Insurance is “constructive”.