Scottish election 2021: Fact-checking the leaders’ debate

In their last televised debate of the 2021 Holyrood election campaign, the five leaders of Scotland’s larger political parties traded claims on tax, the pandemic and social care.

We’ve looked at some of them.

This is correct but needs context.

From 2018, there has been a different regime for Scottish income tax payers, using newly devolved powers.

Lower earners pay a lower rate on a small tranche of their money, meaning they pay £21 per year less than someone on the same pay in the rest of the UK.

And this had been expected to raise, last financial year, £456m more than if Westminster’s tax bands and rates had been used.

But there has been slower growth in the Scottish tax base and in revenue than there would have been without devolved income tax.

And so, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) reports, the changes actually raised an extra £117m.

For the current financial year, however, the Scottish Fiscal Commission expects them to raise £494m more than if Westminster’s tax regime had been used.

Although, this assumes income-tax revenue in Scotland takes a proportionately smaller hit from Covid than in the rest of the UK, and, as with much current budgeting, is a very rough forecast with lots of uncertainty.

This is correct but needs context.

That is a total of 1.2 million people paying more.

And the threshold for paying the higher rates is lower in Scotland than the rest of the UK.

More than half Scottish taxpayers have incomes below £27,393.

And they now pay £21 per year less than someone on the same pay in the rest of the UK, the IFS says.

Mr Sarwar was asked if his planned 5% rise on the top rate of income tax would make people earning more than £150,000 a year leave Scotland.

About 15,000 people in Scotland earn more than £150,000.

So a “disproportionate” number would imply more than 3,150 people earning more than £150,000 worked in the public sector.

But we cannot find a breakdown of how many top earners work in the public or private sector.

Ms Sturgeon is the only minister who earns more than £150,000 – and one civil servant earns that much.

Public-sector chief executives have their basic pay capped at about £150,000 – but other compensation can take them well above that level.

Some doctors and surgeons may also earn more than £150,000.

Mr Harvie was expressing caution about easing restrictions on international travel.

And a scientific report released in early December said many cases detected early in the second wave of Scotland’s epidemic could be traced back to travel abroad in July and August last year.

Between 17 July and 30 August, researchers studying the genomic history of the virus estimated, there had been 46 “import events” into Scotland, where the virus was “reseeded” into the population:

Later in December, however, public health officials warned of the spread of a new variant of the virus, identified in Kent, which was more infectious.

Willie Rennie (Liberal Democrats): ‘We have got a 20% vacancy [rate] in social care’

All five leaders were asked about their plans for Scotland’s social-care sector, put under strain by the pandemic.

But we have been unable to find evidence to support Mr’s Rennie’s claim that 20% of job roles are unfilled.

In 2019, according to the Care Inspectorate and Scottish Social Services Council data, the rate of full-time vacancies for care services in Scotland was 6.2%, up from 5.5% in 2018.

Figures for 2020 are yet to be published.

We asked the Lib Dems where they got their figure from. An official told us it originated from a conversation with the GMB union.