Following a seasonable but cooler Wednesday, Central New York is bracing for the most significant frost risk of the season as a cold Canadian airmass settles over the region. Afternoon temperatures on the first of October reached the low to mid-60s, a drop of about 10 degrees from the previous day.
Overnight, a combination of clear skies and calm winds will allow temperatures to fall into the 30s across the area. In response, the National Weather Service has issued official frost advisories and freeze warnings for many counties. However, localized frost may also occur in areas not covered by these alerts, including portions of Onondaga, Cayuga, and Seneca counties.
Frost can form at ground level even when officially reported temperatures are between 33 and 37 degrees. Official air temperatures are measured five to six feet above the ground, but because cold air is dense and sinks, the temperature on grass and vegetation can be up to five degrees colder. Widespread and thicker frost is likely in areas where the official temperature drops to 32 degrees or below.
For some parts of the region, this frost event is arriving five to 12 days ahead of schedule. Locations near large bodies of water, such as the immediate shores of Lake Ontario, the Finger Lakes, and the southern side of Oneida Lake, are least likely to experience significant frost. Elsewhere, residents should take precautions to prevent damage to gardens and crops.
A frost advisory means that cold temperatures could kill sensitive outdoor plants if they are left uncovered. A freeze warning signifies that temperatures are expected to remain below 32 degrees for several hours, which will end the growing season for unprotected vegetation. Farmers and gardeners are advised to take protective measures to extend the life of their plants.
After this chilly period, a significant warming trend is expected. Both low and high temperatures will increase notably, with the possibility of near-record highs by the end of the weekend.
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