A new Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey reveals a statistical dead heat in New Jersey’s 2025 gubernatorial race, with Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli each capturing 43% of voter support. Eleven percent of voters remain undecided.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, highlighted sharp demographic divides in the tightly contested race. Voters under 40 favor Sherrill by a wide margin (58% to 24%), while those over 50 prefer Ciattarelli (52% to 36%). A significant gender gap also emerged, with women backing Sherrill by ten points and men choosing Ciattarelli by a twelve-point margin.
The political landscape is influenced by the low approval ratings of key figures. Governor Phil Murphy holds a 35% job approval rating, with 44% disapproving—a five-point drop since May. President Donald Trump’s approval among New Jersey voters is also underwater, with 41% approving and 51% disapproving. Kimball noted that each campaign is leveraging these figures, with “Sherrill trying to tie Ciattarelli to Trump… and Ciattarelli trying to tie Sherrill to Murphy and the cost of living.”
Voters are nearly evenly split on how the next governor should interact with the Trump administration: 51% prefer the governor stand up to the administration, while 49% favor working with it.
Economic issues dominate voters’ concerns, with 51% citing the economy as the top issue facing the state. Other priorities include threats to democracy (13%), housing affordability (11%), healthcare (6%), immigration (5%), and crime (5%).
When asked who is responsible for New Jersey’s high utility costs, 30% of voters blame utility companies and 22% blame the governor. A partisan divide is evident, as 36% of Democrats point to utility companies, while 36% of Republicans blame Governor Murphy. On the issue of property taxes, 46% of respondents believe the governor, state legislature, town governments, and local school districts share responsibility.
The survey also found that 46% of voters support merging school districts to reduce costs, while 22% are opposed. Opposition is significantly higher among parents of school-aged children (37%) compared to non-parents (17%).
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