Private sector specialists anticipate that the inflation will register an annual variation of 8.48% throughout the year 2022, and that it will barely moderate to 8.44% in 2023, revealed this Monday information contained in the Bank of Mexico survey.
The expectation for 2022 is above the 8.15% estimated by themselves in September and accumulated 14 consecutive months of upward adjustments. Meanwhile, the forecast for 2023 incorporates 14 progressive monthly upward revisions from the 3.55% forecast in July 2021.
According to the results of the survey, the 37 analysis groups consulted projected that core inflation will register an annual variation of 8.11% at the end of 2022, a forecast that has also increased progressively from the 3.74% forecast in September 2021.
To weigh the relevance of this forecast, the Director for Latin America at Moody’s Analytics consultancy, Alfredo Coutiño, explained that core inflation is the thermometer of the price conditions of the economy and is usually the key indicator followed by the committees of Monetary politics.
Under this scenario of inflation, the analysis and consulting groups that responded to the survey predict that Banxico will take the rate to 10.20% at the end of the year. This is the highest forecast expected for the rate by the experts consulted by Banxico in at least 12 months.
Recession ruled out
The specialists consulted by the central bank estimate that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Mexico will achieve a growth of 2.01% this year.
The forecast incorporates a sixth consecutive monthly upward correction from the 1.73% collected in April and is close to the estimate recently adjusted by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the one that Banxico recently adjusted to leave it at 2.2 percent.
For 2023, which is the year that some international analysts anticipate a risk for the United States, the specialists consulted revised the forecast upwards to 2%, from the 1.90% forecast the previous month. The current estimated rate incorporates a third upward correction.
The experts consulted estimated that the United States will achieve GDP growth of 1.34% this year, a forecast that contrasts with the 1.63% projected the previous month and became the lowest projection expected by the experts consulted by Banxico in 13 months.
For the coming year they forecast that the US GDP will reach an advance of 1.60%, which is the lowest rate expected by the participants since December 2021, when they calculated an advance of 2.81 percent.
In the section of the survey on the perception of the business climate offered by Mexico, only 8% of the analysts consider this as a good time to make investments. A proportion lower than the 9% who had this perception the previous month.
According to the results, 67% of those consulted responded that it is a bad time to invest, a proportion that was adjusted from the 69% who had this feeling the previous month and is far from the 73% who had the same perception in July.
In the survey from the end of September, only 11% consider that it will improve in the next 6 months and 54% say that it will get worse.
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