The Mexican financial system remains solid and resilient after the 20-month Covid-19 pandemic has passed, but the global context imposes at least four challenges for its stability, warned the governor of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), Alejandro Díaz de León.
The first of them has to do with the tightening of global financial conditionsHe explained that it will be the result of increases in interest rates in the main advanced economies, such as the United States, as well as larger and more persistent inflationary spikes.
The second challenge concerns the less vigorous recovery of the global economy and more heterogeneous between sectors and countries.
The third is relative to impact of prolonged weakness and more accentuated consumption and investment.
And the fourth and last, about the potentials increases in both sovereign and Petróleos Mexicanos risk premiums (Pemex) as well as effects on their respective credit ratings.
In giving his last press conference as governor of the Bank of Mexico To present the Financial Stability Report, he explained that changes in sovereign and Pemex ratings may motivate increases in risk premiums.
In the document they specified that “if these scenarios materialize, increases in risk premiums would be observed in both the sovereign and Pemex, so the risk of feedback and secondary effects in the economy cannot be ruled out.”
The central banker stressed that “the exercise of the rating agencies this year has shown the challenge that state companies represent for sovereign risk.”
And within the document, the economists of the Bank of Mexicoo they specified that the trajectory of sovereign risk premiums and Pemex It is associated with several factors, where the potential growth of the economy and the state of public finances stand out.
This in addition to the strength of its institutions and the evolution of the financial position of Pemex, which in turn depends on changes in both the price of oil and the production of hydrocarbon.
Caution in financing
The Mexican central banker, the last of his career at the institute, pointed out one more challenge for the country’s financial system: the inclusion and penetration of banking.
Alejandro Diaz de Leon He explained that great advances have been made in the more solid position of the participants in the financial system and also highlighted the caution of the borrowers.
“The granting of credit has not occurred in accordance with the economic recovery and the challenge is to achieve that it accompanies in harmony the productive activity, the companies and the consumers,” he said.