The American “Stratfor” Center for Security and Intelligence Studies considered that the recent Houthi attack on Abu Dhabi may lead to a series of strikes that undermine the UAE’s reputation as a safe trading center.
The center – which is described as close to US intelligence – published an analysis on its website explaining the repercussions of the January 17 attack, which was adopted by the Houthis.
The center pointed to initial reports that the attack, which targeted sites near Abu Dhabi Airport, including oil tanks of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company “ADNOC”, and resulted in the killing of two Indian residents and a Pakistani one, in which drones, ballistic and winged missiles were used, and that Saudi Arabia shot down some of these missiles.
He also indicated that it is the first time – it seems – that the Houthis have succeeded in striking the territory of the UAE, and that the operation comes a week after the Emirati-backed Giants forces regained the oil-rich Yemeni governorate of Shabwa, following battles with the Houthis.
repercussions of the attack
Stratfor believed that the Houthi attack could also lead to US military and diplomatic support for the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen, and put new pressures on the Iranian-backed Houthis.
He also expressed his belief that the UAE will use the attack on its capital to pressure for US diplomatic and military support in Yemen. In this context, he referred to the UAE’s demand that the United States return the Houthi group to the list of terrorist organizations.
The American Center for Security and Intelligence Studies spoke of some indications that the administration of US President Joe Biden may support greater military pressure by the coalition on the Houthis.
The Stratfor article stated that since 2019, the UAE has significantly reduced the involvement of its forces in combat operations in Yemen and has become dependent on forces loyal to it, including the Giants Brigades, but this did not prevent the Houthis from continuing to threaten the UAE because of its support for their opponents in Yemen.
The center said that the UAE has historically escaped most of the effects of instability in the region, thanks in part to decades of its non-interventionist foreign policies, but it shows that this approach changed after the Arab Spring.
According to the same analysis, the Houthi attack on Abu Dhabi may negatively affect the recent diplomatic rapprochement between the UAE and Iran.
The site concluded by saying that the UAE is afraid of provoking a military confrontation that might frighten tourists, companies and investors, which are basic pillars of its economic development strategy.
