An American intelligence center warned that water scarcity threatens to turn into a weapon and a driver of conflicts in… The Middle East And North Africa.
In its assessment of the water situation in the region, the American Stratfor Center for Strategic and Security Studies expects that the worsening problem of water scarcity, due to years of mismanagement, the security vacuum, and population growth, will make water an increasingly contested resource, which increases the risk of social unrest and violence. By non-state armed groups and inter-state conflict.
He said that “water stress” in the Middle East and North Africa has become a more severe threat to the stability of each individual country and the region as a whole, in the midst of an ongoing struggle over this vital resource, which is increasingly scarce, and attempts to control it.
He blamed the countries of the Middle East and North Africa for what he described as their mismanagement of their water resources over decades, which exacerbated the water shortage in the region, where a hot and dry climate prevails.
Water stress
What makes matters worse – according to the intelligence assessment – is the rapid population growth witnessed by many countries, which has led to an increase in demand for limited fresh water. Against this background, access to water supplies has become a driver of conflict between states and non-state actors in the Middle East and North Africa, as well as a catalyst for social unrest.
Stratfor attributes the cause of the phenomenon of water stress to the disparity between countries' water resources and the demand for them. In countries that suffer from severe water scarcity, such as countries in the Middle East and North Africa, almost all available water resources are exploited, making these countries vulnerable to water shortages if any changes in supply or demand occur.
Despite the scarcity of water in the region, the vulnerability of the water situation varies from one country to another. For example, some countries have rivers running through their lands, giving them an advantage over countries that do not have access to this type of surface water system, according to the assessment.
According to a report issued by the World Resources Institute in August 2023, the most water-stressed countries in the world include Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and Lebanon, mostly due to lack of supplies for domestic, agricultural and industrial use. The report also details that the most water-stressed region in the world is the Middle East and North Africa, where excessive water use affects 83% of the population.
Oppressive tool
The American Center warns that countries that have a surplus of water will use this vital resource as an “oppressive tool” to deter potential hostile actions against them in the event of disagreements or conflicts, which threatens the stability of countries suffering from water stress.
As water becomes increasingly unavailable and is needed for various agricultural and industrial processes, as well as for domestic consumption, countries experiencing water scarcity will likely look, at least initially, to sign agreements with countries that have more water supplies.
However, the Center assesses that geographical, infrastructural and financial constraints will limit the capabilities of many countries to conclude such agreements. Moreover, given that states in the Middle East and North Africa are often at diplomatic loggerheads or in outright conflict, “water repression” will increasingly become a strategic tool for exerting power and influence over other water-stressed states.
For countries that are naturally rich in water such as Turkey, or those that possess the technological capacity (for desalination) such as Israel, this strategy – according to the assessment – will include controlling the flow of water and access to it, which often leads to exacerbation of tensions and conflicts in the region. It already suffers from instability.
Jordan and Israel
The Center gave an example of this situation, with the water agreement in 2021 between… Israel andJordanwhich stipulates that Amman will receive water from Israel in exchange for providing energy to Tel Aviv. Although the agreement facilitates cooperation between the two parties, it reveals power imbalances, as Israel controls water sources, which exposes Jordan to danger during periods of drought.
Another example of the extent to which water resources affect the relations of countries with each other is the dispute between Türkiye on the one hand and Iraq and Syria on the other hand. The intelligence center believes that the ruling Türkiye On my river Tigris andEuphrates As it affects the downstream countries (Iraq and Syria), it is an example of the use of water as a “tool of oppression” in recent times.
In countries such as Iran, Iraq, Algeria and Bahrain, inadequate water management has already sparked bouts of public unrest, highlighting the potential severity of the problem in the coming years, according to the same report.
Weak governance structures
Weak governance structures across the region exacerbate these problems, as corruption, inefficiency and lack of investment in water infrastructure hamper effective management of this resource.
In Egypt – the evaluation adds – government policies that give priority to water-intensive crops such as rice have led to a strain on limited water supplies from Nile Riverdespite growing concerns about Ethiopia's filling impactEthiopian Renaissance Dam.
The center explained that water shortages in Algeria and Iran sparked waves of popular protests in both countries, pointing out that growing water scarcity in the region is likely to create an environment in which non-state armed groups are likely to control vital water resources to gain influence.