The risks facing the world today are many, and the World Economic Forum, in cooperation with Marsh McLennan and Zurich Insurance Group, has limited them in its report issued on January 10, 2024, to four main risks that are agreed upon by more than two-thirds of the experts who contributed to its preparation. These risks include climate change, demographic changes, emerging technologies, geopolitical conflicts and disputes, and the use of technology in managing them.
What concerns us in this article is the fourth type of risks and taking the Taiwan issue as a model for analysis, as this issue represents one of the potential geopolitical conflicts in which the intertwining of geopolitical tensions and technology clearly appears as one of the most important security risks facing the world within the framework of the strategic competition between the United States and China.
Taiwan today is considered – according to many who work in the field of international relations – the most dangerous place on earth, viewed from the perspective of the desire of the Chinese leadership, which has constantly expressed its intention to achieve reunification with Taiwan, even if this requires the use of military force and the possibility that this step could lead to the outbreak of war between it and the United States. Based on this possibility, several questions arise, including: To what extent is China serious in its threats to invade Taiwan?
What does this mean for the equation of strategic conflict between the world’s two superpowers today? Why is Taiwan important, and why should America care about its fate? Is the United States prepared to defend Taiwan and maintain its commitment to peace and stability in the region? What does this potential battle have to do with determining the global balance of power and thus determining the identity of the dominant power in the international order expected to crystallize and take shape against the backdrop of these repercussions?
Taiwan’s competitive importance
Taiwan’s geostrategic location has given the strait an important dimension, and its connection to the China Sea has played a significant role in raising its competitive value. The Taiwan Strait connects the South China Sea in the south to the East China Sea in the north, which is one of the busiest waterways in the world, with an estimated $3.4 trillion in annual maritime trade, including energy supplies to US allies in the region, Japan and South Korea. According to the US Energy Information Administration, the South China Sea Strait contains about 11 billion barrels of oil classified as “proven” or “probable” reserves.
There seems to be a clear relationship between controlling Taiwan and controlling the South China Sea. Controlling Taiwan gives China many strategic advantages in its quest to change the global power equation and move from the status of a major state to the status of a superpower. This includes obtaining an advanced base of operations to monitor and control maritime traffic, and imposing air and naval power deep in the South China Sea, in addition to benefiting from Taiwan’s qualitative military capabilities that it obtains from America.
Perhaps the greatest competitive advantage that China will have if it annexes Taiwan is to demonstrate its military strength and international influence, which may lead to the establishment of a new international system based on multipolarity instead of the unipolar system currently run by the United States.
For Washington, Taiwan is of great strategic importance from a security standpoint, as it enjoys a bay located at a crucial node within the first island chain, which helps it establish a network of key allies and partners in an area extending from the Japanese archipelago to the Philippines and to the South China Sea. This is of paramount importance to the security of the region and crucial to defending the vital interests of the United States in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, and also crucial to preventing China from controlling the South China Sea and then declaring its control over Asia as a major step in its strategic competition with the United States and its regional partners.
Taiwan’s fate will largely determine the regional and international balance of power, and Washington’s interest in Taiwan stems from a desire to contain Beijing and prevent it from establishing a military infrastructure that includes underwater surveillance devices, submarines, and air defense units on the island in a way that would enable it – China – to limit the operations of the US military in the region, and thus its ability – the US military – to defend its Asian allies.
Chinese intentions
It is no longer hidden from observers that China intends and is seriously seeking to annex Taiwan for the reasons mentioned above. One of the strongest indicators in this direction is the announcement on October 23, 2022, that Chinese President Xi Jinping will serve an unprecedented third term in the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party. We refer here to the speech he delivered before the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, in which he said that “the complete reunification of our country must be achieved, and can undoubtedly be achieved,” adding that the People’s Republic of China “reserves the option of taking all necessary measures.”
It appears from the Chinese president’s public statements that China is waiting for the right moment to annex Taiwan. Xi Jinping’s statements must be read in two contexts: the first is related to his keenness to accomplish this task by all available means during his third term, and the second is through working to ensure that this is done within the context of China’s strategic vision 2030. This year represents a critical turning point for China in terms of economic development, technological progress, military capacity building, and environmental commitments. These developments will have major implications not only for China but for the world as a whole.
In the same vein related to China’s intention to annex Taiwan, US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines stated during her briefing to the Senate Armed Services Committee in May 2022 that “China is watching how countries around the world respond to Russia and is considering a potential invasion of Taiwan.” This was supported by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at the Shangri-La Security Forum in Singapore in June 2022, who said, “I personally have a strong sense of urgency that today’s Ukraine could become tomorrow’s East Asia.”
American strategy
The United States relies on the principle of enhancing deterrence in the Taiwan Strait. Ely Ratner, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, confirmed to the House Armed Services Committee on September 19, 2023, that the Department of Defense is working with other government agencies, allies, and friends to enhance deterrence across the Taiwan Strait to ensure peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region. Washington’s strategy is based on the six principles that were adopted in 1982 during negotiations on the third U.S.-China Joint Statement on arms sales to Taiwan. These principles include:
- America has not set a date to end arms sales to Taiwan.
- The United States will not change the terms of the Taiwan Relations Act.
- The United States will not consult with China in advance before making decisions on U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.
- The United States will not mediate between Taiwan and China.
- The United States will not change its position on Taiwan’s sovereignty, as the issue is one that the Chinese themselves must decide peacefully, and will not pressure Taiwan to enter into negotiations with China.
- The United States will not formally recognize Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan.
On May 16, 2016, the US House of Representatives passed a simultaneous resolution giving the first formal wording to the Six Guarantees, along with an important legislative development that reaffirmed the US’s formal commitment to ensuring Taiwan’s security and pledging to protect it.
In late 2022, Congress passed the National Defense Authorization Act of 2023, which President Joe Biden signed into law, and which included a section titled the “Taiwan Resilience Enhancement Act.” This section authorizes $2 billion in grants and loans to Taiwan annually for five years, and authorizes the sending of $1 billion annually in military stockpiles to Taiwan in the event of an emergency.
Implications
One of the most significant expected consequences of China’s occupation of Taiwan is its dominance over Asia, which will mean it will have a controlling influence over nearly half of the global economy. With this power, it will be able to become the richest, most economically secure and most influential country in the world, and as a result it will be able to transform its supposed economic power into strengthening its elements of power in other sectors, most notably the security and military sectors.
As for the world, Taiwanese companies make about 70% of the world’s chips, and about 90% of the most advanced chips. If the world loses Taiwan’s production capacity, no one will be able to fill this gap in the near term, which will have serious and devastating repercussions on the global economy, especially products that contain technology almost exclusively, from smartphones to computers, cars, aircraft, and many defense and medical industries.
Added to this is the potential for global disruption to supply chains, which could cause shortages and price increases across a wide range of industries. This could result in production shutdowns, deterioration, and even significant job losses.
Scenarios:
Scenario 1: Peaceful reunification within one state, two systems
This scenario depends on China successfully persuading Taiwan to accept reunification under a one-country, two-systems model, similar to that of Hong Kong and Macau. This would involve negotiations, economic incentives, and guarantees of Taiwanese autonomy, but there are obstacles that make this an unlikely option, given the rising sense of Taiwanese national identity and distrust of Chinese promises against the backdrop of Hong Kong’s erosion of autonomy.
Scenario 2: Maintaining the status quo with deterrence and diplomacy
This scenario is based on the continuation of the current situation, with Taiwan maintaining its de facto independence, and continued US military support, while increasing pressure from the Chinese side on Taiwan without using force, in order to avoid the potential risks of conflict with the United States. This scenario is the closest of the proposed scenarios.
Scenario 3: Military conflict with limited US intervention
This scenario is based on China launching a limited military operation against Taiwan, with the aim of seizing remote islands or blockading the main island, which will prompt America to intervene by launching limited military strikes and providing assistance to Taiwan, while avoiding entering into a full-scale war with China.
Scenario 4: All-out war between the United States and China
This scenario is based on a full-scale Chinese invasion of Taiwan, leading to a direct military confrontation with the United States. This could involve massive air and naval battles, cyber warfare, and perhaps even nuclear weapons.
Conclusion
Taiwan is a ruling region and has many advantages that make it qualified to resolve the struggle for influence and power between the East, led by China, and the West, led by the United States, in the medium and long term.
Despite the risks of any type of confrontation between the two powers, the possibility of a comprehensive military confrontation remains an inevitable option from the perspective of the offensive realist school in international relations, even in the long term, due to the fact that the rise and decline of empires remains governed by factors of power and not the force of law.
The door remains open to testing the validity of what Ian Easton, associate professor at the China Naval Studies Institute at the US Naval War College, argued in his valuable book, “The Chinese Invasion Threat,” that China has been actively preparing for such an invasion for many years and is now capable of launching a successful attack.
The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera Network.
