The Iranian bombing with missiles and drones of the Sabzkouh area near the city of Panjgur in the province Balochistan Western Pakistan: Questions about the future of the security situation in a region that has already suffered from fragility for years.
The Pakistani response was not long in coming, as Islamabad bombed areas in the province with missiles Sistan and Baluchistan Iran, which made the situation more complicated, especially since the two countries used the same pretext for mutual bombing, which was “pursuing armed terrorist groups.”
Although relations between the two countries were marred by some tension in the past, these strikes are unprecedented between two neighbors that share a land border estimated at about 700 kilometers.
Questions about timing
The Iranian bombing of Pakistani territory coincided with a meeting with the interim Prime Minister of Pakistan Anwarul Haq is a hater With the Iranian Foreign Minister Hussein Amir Abdullahian In Switzerland on the sidelines of a meeting Davos Forum.
The Iranian attack was also preceded by the visit of Hassan Kazemi Qomi, the Special Representative of the Iranian President and Iranian Ambassador to Afghanistan, to Islamabad with the aim of forming a liaison committee for regional coordination regarding dealing with Afghanistan.
The bombing also came with the publication of news by the Iranian IRNA news agency about joint war exercises between the Pakistani naval forces and the Iranian naval forces.
The bombing opened the door wide to speculation about the reasons for choosing this particular timing.
Pretexts for mutual bombing
Iran announced that its bombing inside Pakistani territory targeted the bases of the “Army of Justice” organization, which the Iranian media calls the “Army of Injustice,” and accuses it of having relations with Israel and of using Pakistani territory as a launching pad for military attacks in the Sistan and Baluchestan region inside Iran.
As for Pakistan, it condemned the Iranian bombing, considered it a “flagrant violation” of its sovereignty, and prevented the Iranian ambassador from returning to Islamabad. It also recalled its ambassador from Tehran in response to the Iranian bombing.
Islamabad stressed that options are open to respond to the “unjustified” Iranian bombing, according to the words of the Pakistani Foreign Ministry’s official spokeswoman, Zahra Baloch. The Pakistani army also responded with strikes targeting the Iranian province of Sistan and Baluchestan.
But what is striking is that the Iranian Foreign Minister, in a statement he made while at the Davos Forum, linked his country’s bombing of targets in Pakistan, Syria and Iraq to the fact that those targets are linked to Israel and its foreign intelligence service (Mossad).
Messages internally and externally
These statements were interpreted to mean that the bombing comes in the context of the repercussions of the Israeli war on Gaza, what is happening in southern Lebanon, and the tension in Yemen and the Red Sea.
Observers believe that the Iranian bombing came in the context of Tehran’s display of its power in response to American and Israeli threats due to its position in support of the resistance in Palestine, Lebanon and Yemen.
It is a message from which it is understood that Iran is capable of expanding the circle of conflict, contrary to the American will, which is trying to keep the Israeli war on the Palestinian people in Gaza confined there.
There is another possibility to explain the bombing, which is that it was a reaction to the recent Kerman bombings, which were claimed by the Islamic State, while Iran accused the Mossad of being responsible for them. Thus, the Iranian leadership wants to send dual messages at home and abroad that it is capable of responding.
Escalation or calm?
In the context of the extent to which events may develop, analysts believe that it is unlikely that the current escalation will develop into a war between the two countries, given several surrounding circumstances, including economic and political reasons that prevent the ball of tension from rolling towards war. The political and economic situation in Pakistan Escalation with Iran is not allowed, especially since the country is scheduled for parliamentary elections next month, and at the same time the country’s affairs are run by an unelected interim government that does not have the right to take the decision to start a war.
On the other hand, it is not in Iran’s interest in the current circumstances to open a front for war with Pakistan, as it has enough issues at the external, regional and internal levels.
Relationship meanders
We cannot ignore the negative effects of the impact of such an escalation on relations between two neighboring countries, especially since Iranian-Pakistani relations have gone through twists and turns. Some observers believe that sectarian tension was a theme that was reflected in the overall ties between the two countries.
Media outlets in Pakistan have pointed the finger at Iran for causing sectarian problems and confrontations between Sunnis and Shiites by supporting Shiite groups loyal to it in Pakistan.
In some of its developments, the matter reached the point of accusing Tehran of establishing an armed organization called “Zainabiyoun” made up of young Pakistani Shiites fighting in Syria alongside the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, such as Afghan Shiite armed groups called the “Fatemiyoun”, which constitutes a security threat to Pakistan, which fears To repeat the Taliban experience in another form.
Parametric triangle
In addition, there is another factor that casts a negative shadow on the overall relations between Pakistan and Iran, which is the gradual escalation of armed attacks inside the Iranian province of Sistan and Baluchestan. These attacks mostly target Iranian security forces, especially the Revolutionary Guard, which guards a border triangle between Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan of approximately Its length is about 300 km.
These attacks previously led to the death and injury of a number of officers and soldiers in the ranks of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, and in some cases those killed in these attacks included senior officers such as the Deputy Commander of the Ground Forces of the Revolutionary Guard, the Commander of the Al-Quds Base, the Commander of the Revolutionary Guard in the Sistan and Baluchestan Province, and others.
Armed groups from inside Pakistan have also captured a number of Iranian officers and soldiers several times, which each time led to a limited escalation on the border that quickly ended.
But the escalation this time was greater than it is every time, which opened the door to fears of a war occurring between two countries, each of which has more than one reason to abort it in its infancy, so it is likely that matters will not develop and that the political leaderships in the two countries will seek to calm down despite the negative effects it has had. It casts a shadow over the relations between the two neighboring countries.
