The candidate is the least

It is true that the head of government enjoys AMLO’s sympathy, but not everything is the internal drag in Morena, what is more, that is irrelevant, what López Obrador does know is about elections and he will surely calculate the negatives that accompany Claudia , specifically the tragedies at the Enrique Rébsamen school and in the Metro.

Winning the 2024 election has become an obsession of the president, throughout his government, but especially after the regular results that his party obtained in the 2021 election, he has launched a series of actions aimed at controlling of the electoral register, the disposition of resources, the delivery of support and the construction of an electoral army.

We already know the story, if the results are not what you want, you will ignore them, it has already sown doubts against the INE, the Electoral Tribunal and even against the Supreme Court of Justice of the Nation. If he doesn’t like the results, Andrés Manuel López Obrador is going to victimize his candidates, particularly those for the presidency and the head of government. He believes he still has a base of 30 million, even though only half of them repeated in the midterms.

The figure he wants for Morena’s presidential candidate is already in his mind, most assume that it is Claudia Sheinbaum, I think it is Adán Augusto López Hernández, but the man is pragmatic and is going to lean towards whoever guarantees him, first immunity for he and his family, have too many open fronts and secondly the continuity of his project.

It is true that the head of government enjoys AMLO’s sympathy, but not everything is the internal drag in Morena, what is more, that is irrelevant, what López Obrador does know is about elections and he will surely calculate the negatives that accompany Claudia , specifically the tragedies at the Enrique Rébsamen school and in the Metro.

Adán Augusto, who is not his relative, is the one he knows best, they practically grew up together, in the Ministry of the Interior he has developed a job to the liking of the president, even on the most complicated issues.

López Obrador has given clear signs that he is not grateful, therefore the possibility that he opts for Marcelo Ebrard is very remote, for that of 2012 and Ricardo Monreal, without being ruled out, many factors would have to align so that the decision favors him.

But what has been said, what López Obrador does not lose sleep over is the candidate, he already has the election process under control, he has already said that it will be by poll and he will be the one to conduct it, with all that that means.

And he is not worried about who the candidate is because for a couple of years he has been building a parallel structure in various dependencies and delegations of the federal government, one is dedicated to the operation and the other to the construction of the army for the promotion, lifting and monitoring of the census.

And then come the armed forces, yes, since the pandemic its elements have been building a list of the services that citizens receive under the control and surveillance of the military.

Subsidies for the elderly and young people have been closely monitored. More resources will come from the funds whose budgets have passed or are going to pass to the control of officials who are fully trusted by the president.

Dependencies that are linked to millions of voters such as education and welfare have at the head operators that have accompanied them for many years.

López Obrador feels that he has everything under control, which is why Morena’s candidate for the presidency does not make him lose sleep, perhaps he is more concerned about what could happen in Mexico City, but he trusts in his strongholds of Iztapalapa, Tláhuac, Xochimilco and Milpa Alta. That is another story, if the PAN leadership chooses well, the opposition can win and even support its presidential candidate, but we will deal with that at another time.

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