The economic data for the year begins

Today could be the day to give the starting signal for the economic data of this 2023 with the very early publication of inflation for the first fortnight of this month of January.

And it may be one of the most important data at the beginning of the year because it is necessary to see if the deceleration of the National Consumer Price Index continues, as an indicator of general inflation, and to see if core inflation is already beginning to show some sign of having touched a ceiling and starting a descent.

The first days of the year have the peculiarity of reflecting the agreed increases in rates and prices and it could be that they are noted in sub-indexes such as the rates authorized by the government. There will be drops in seasonal products and services, such as tourist packages, but it may begin to give indications of what may come for inflation and with it for monetary policy.

We will see if the Reuters agency survey among 16 analysts, who estimated an annual general inflation of 7.86% at the end of the first fortnight, met the data that we already know this Tuesday morning.

And, above all, to see if their expectation that the restrictive monetary policy of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) will be more leisurely in interest rate increases can materialize.

There will be another important economic data on Tuesday of next week. It will be the timely estimate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at the end of 2022, which, although it is information from last year, may show how dynamic or decelerated economic activity is in 2023.

Estimates speak of a GDP expansion that could be close to 3% for all of 2022, but with the real possibility of a slowdown to end the year with growth of just 1% or less. All of that so far are forecasts.

The first data from the Inegi on the behavior of the economy this year will come with some confidence surveys of economic agents during the first days of February.

Then, car sales for January and by mid-February one of the new experimental indicators from Inegi will arrive, which will allow us to have a first picture of economic activity in January.

By that time we will already know the behavior of inflation for this entire month and a week will have passed since the first monetary policy decision of the Governing Board of the Bank of Mexico and the United States Federal Reserve.

The Ministry of Finance will publish the report on public finances and debt at the end of this month.

In short, the dance of the data of what we will surely have to perceive in our daily economic life and in the advance that the financial markets make us begins.

So far, the expectation is for 2023 with lower inflation, with rates that remain high for at least the first semester before beginning a decline, and an economy that is clearly going to slow down without knowing if we will reach a recession level.

ecampos@eleconomista.mx