The regime of Carlos Salinas de Gortari used to do the same thing that the regime of Andrés Manuel López Obrador does now.
During the second half of that six-year term, they swore that public finances were healthy, robust and as strong as the transformation that the then President had undertaken.
The financial officials of that time explained, just as they do now, very casually how they were very calm and confident that neither the debt, nor the growth in spending, nor the decline in economic activity and with it in tax revenues, were a problem. for the stability of the country.
The financial bomb exploded due to that financial management in the times of Salinas de Gortari and that motivated profound changes at the end of the 90s to design a scheme of greater transparency and resistance of public finances.
Today, thanks to two decades of structural strengthening of finances, there is a way to have greater economic stability. But that one-man and authoritarian touch is back, which means that the legislative power is unable to put a brake on an extremely optimistic Economic Package that favors unproductive and electoral spending.
By 2023 there will be more public debt and to hide it in its relationship with the Gross Domestic Product, since they calculate a level of economic growth of more than double what the market expects.
The growth of non-programmable spending is notorious in this environment of high interest rates and programmable spending is dominated by the President’s capricious and unprofitable works, in addition to welfare spending that is increasing exponentially.
Revenues do not look like a great year, along with a drop in growth and the absence of a Fiscal Miscellaneous that increases tax revenues. Once again, all expectations of increased revenues are in the collection capabilities of the SAT.
2023 will pass without major shocks, the 2024 package will be obscenely electoral and may begin to mark the first yellow spots of pressure on financial balances.
And, at this rate, the real problems will begin in the design of the 2025 Economic Package which, according to what the Constitution says, should already be the turn of a new President.
For now, everything looks very good with the public finances, Congress approves them without question, a large part of the spending exercise is reserved for “national security” issues, the officials comfortably explain in the media that everything is very well, and the appearance is that there is nothing to worry about.
We just have to hope that there is no kind of political upheaval in what remains for this administration so that these public finances, which, said by the former secretary of the Treasury of this regime, Carlos Urzúa, will be a lit dynamite for whoever arrives , they are not going to provoke some mess like that of the mid-90s.
It is fair to say that this Economic Package, which the President is going to approve with closed eyes, does not imply great risks for 2023, but it must also be seen that one cannot close one’s eyes to the foreseeable financial risks that may be inherited the next administration.
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