Few places in the world experience more unrest than one region Horn of Africa Which includes Somalia andDjibouti andEthiopia andEritreaAccording to the British Economist magazine.
According to the magazine’s report, the region has been ravaged by wars such as the one between Ethiopia and Eritrea, a civil war in Ethiopia, a prolonged “jihadist” rebellion and the collapse of the state in Somalia, while external powers compete to win the loyalties and resources of the Horn of Africa.
In its analysis, the magazine described the situation in that region, located in the northeastern part of the African continent, as becoming more worrying than usual.
The heated confrontation resulted from Addis Ababa's attempts to exploit Berbera port In the territory Somaliland The separatist, pitted Ethiopia against the states of Somalia and Eritrea, and attracted regional powers, including Egypt andTürkiye andUnited Arab Emirates.
Al-Shabaab movement
In the absence of any sign of an early resolution to the crisis, the ongoing conflict portends more conflict in the Horn of Africa by inflaming regional rivalries within Somalia and strengthening Youth Mujahideen Movementwhich the Economist says is terrorizing much of the country and its neighbors.
The dispute over the port began last January, when Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland, a unilaterally declared separatist republic that is not recognized internationally.
Under the agreement, Ethiopia – which lost its direct access to the Red Sea in 1993 when Eritrea seceded – leases part of the coastal strip from Somaliland, allowing it to build a naval base. On the other hand, Ethiopia will be the first country to recognize Somaliland since it declared independence from the motherland more than 3 decades ago.
The British magazine reported that Somalia was angry at the Ethiopian move, considering that Somaliland is part of its territory. The Somali president steps down Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud The blame is mainly on the Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmeddescribing him as “the bad man in the region.”
Everyone is worried
On September 30, Sheikh Mahmoud told The Economist that “everyone today is concerned about the unpredictable behavior of the Ethiopian leadership.”
The magazine indicated in its report that most of the countries in the region initially leaned toward the Somali position. Following that memorandum of understanding, both African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the East African regional bloc, made statements supporting the “territorial integrity of Somalia.” And so I did America andEuropean Union.
Türkiye, the most consistent foreign investor in Somalia, has promised to send troops to help defend Somalia's maritime borders. Sheikh Mahmoud was able to put Abiy Ahmed “in a defensive position,” in the words of a veteran African Union diplomat, whose name the magazine did not mention.
Confusion appeared clear among Ethiopian officials regarding their commitment to recognizing Somaliland, noting that Abiy agreed to consider the matter only after agreeing on the terms of the naval base.
Escalation maneuvers
According to the magazine, this “political victory” for Somalia may have paved the way to avoid confrontation. However, observers have recently become concerned about Sheikh Mahmoud's escalatory “maneuvers.”
In June, the Somali president threatened to expel thousands of Ethiopian peacekeepers stationed in Somalia as part of the African Union mission to fight Al-Shabaab, an al-Qaeda affiliate that controls vast swaths of rural areas outside the capital. Mogadishu.
The magazine also referred to Sheikh Mahmoud's visit to Egypt in August to sign a military cooperation agreement with his counterpart Abdel Fattah El-Sisiwho has pledged to send weapons to Somalia and possibly several thousand soldiers in a new African Union peacekeeping mission scheduled to begin next year. Since then, two Egyptian arms shipments have arrived in Mogadishu.
Many foreign diplomats and analysts see the security agreement as a dangerous escalation, given the hostile relations between Ethiopia and Egypt. The two countries have been locked in a bitter dispute since Ethiopia began building… Renaissance Dam.
Ethiopia is also concerned about Somalia's growing relationship with Eritrea. One of Abiy Ahmed’s motives for the agreement with Somaliland was the collapse of a previous understanding with Eritrea that allowed his country to obtain access to Red Sea Through the ports of its northern neighbour.
Two geopolitical blocs
According to Economist analysis, Ethiopia's agreement with Somaliland created common ground between Somali President Sheikh Mohamud and the Eritrean President. Isaias Afwerki. At the same time, Eritrea and Egypt are discussing the possibility of concluding an agreement for military cooperation and exchange of intelligence information.
The British magazine reports that Ethiopia will become more isolated if such talks result in an official tripartite alliance (Egyptian-Eritrean-Somali). It will also consolidate the division of the Horn of Africa into two geopolitical blocs.
Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia are closely allied with Saudi Arabia and Turkey. They all support the regular Sudanese army in the civil war against Rapid Support Forcesas the news analysis put it.
On the other side are Ethiopia and Somaliland (in addition to some local mini-states in Somalia) and the Rapid Support Forces.
Perhaps it is logical, in light of these developments – from the Economist's point of view – for Ethiopia to rush to the aid of the leaders of the Somali regions who are opposed to Sheikh Mohamud, if it has not already done so.
The magazine claimed that many of Somalia's states, especially the southwest near the capital, are in disagreement with the president over his agreement with Egypt. Some may be happy to strengthen relations with Ethiopia as a “hedge” against his government, which they see as “arrogant.”
The magazine believes that such a conflict may further undermine Somalia's control over its territory, which is “hardly solid” at best.
However, it believes that the risk of a direct war between Ethiopia and Somalia or between Ethiopia and Egypt is still low.