The British Economist magazine said that what it described as the new global chaos has clearly emerged in… World Economic Forumwhich was held in the resort of Davos, Switzerland, from January 15 to 19.
She added that Chinese leaders and officials attended the meetings in small numbers for fear that they would deviate from principles Communist Party. The ruling oligarchy was removed Russia About the forum, while she saw India AndSaudi Arabia Through it, a multipolar world full of opportunities.
However, what overshadowed all of this – according to the magazine – was the possibility of a return Donald Trump To the presidency United State Again, this is a possibility that has become closer following his recent victory in the Republican Party primary elections in Iowa, and the withdrawal of his competitor Ron DeSantis. It appears that Trump will also sweep the election round in New Hampshire on Tuesday.
Foreign governments are afraid
The Economist quoted an American lawmaker – who is engaged in what is known as back-channel diplomacy to allay the fears of allies – that foreign governments are “afraid of what they see on social media about American democracy.”
Just as financial markets are betting on future events as the presidential elections in the United States approach next November, the world has begun to prepare for Trump’s return to power and the consequences that it will bring with it.
The best one can expect from the consequences – according to the Economist article – are that they will include tariffs and the possible abandonment of subsidies. Ukraine AndTaiwanthe approach to dealings with allies, mutual hostility with adversaries and a further decline in international rules.
The transfer of power to Trump will result in a major change
The British magazine says that every change in the American administration results in a lack of continuity with regard to foreign policy. For example, the president is gone Richard Nixon to China; And he asked Ronald Reagan from soviet union Removal Berlin Wall. But moving to rule from joe biden To Donald Trump, it would be great given the wide gap between their policies and the conditions of global chaos, and the possibility of the spread of wars.
According to the Peace Research Institute in the Norwegian capital, Oslo, there are more than 50 conflicts at the state level, the highest number since 1946.
The Economist believes that the Biden administration has tried to reformulate the American role in the 2020s and beyond, by continuing, as a superpower, to engage in global issues and to be close to its allies. At the same time, it became more “selfish” in matters of trade, more cautious in economic security, and more selective in deploying military forces; Especially on land.
Global chaos worsens
Achievements achieved through this approach include strengthening alliances in Asia once again, and rebuilding the alliance to support Ukraine. Despite this, the magazine says, global chaos has worsened with the decline of…For the global system rules-based; The spread of unrest in the Middle East and parts of… Africa AndAfghanistan; And an “unquenchable tendency” toward isolationism in American politics and public opinion.
Biden administration officials insist that there is no indication that their foreign counterparts are “hedging” against the possibility of a change in the US administration. So they tour the world to reassure foreign governments.
But with a tight presidential race looming, the effectiveness of the Biden Doctrine may decline; It will be difficult for his administration – in the opinion of the British magazine – to commit itself to promises that extend beyond 2024, including a two-state solution in the Middle East. Therefore, governments around the world are working to develop alternative plans in the event that Trump becomes president.
The Economist claims that a second Trump presidency will be different from the first for two reasons: that the world has become more chaotic; And Trump will not tolerate any more obstacles to his programs. It is said that the imposition of customs duties in all sectors at a rate of 10% is likely, as is the case with regard to the suspension of “permanent normal trade relations” with China, which will result in the imposition of higher duties than they exist today.
Trump’s return will please some
As for some politicians and countries ideologically compatible with Trump, his presidency will be good news. In Israelit can Benjamin Netanyahu If he succeeds in clinging to power until 2025, he can expect full support for him and rejection of Palestinian aspirations to establish their independent state. The same applies to a prime minister Hungary Viktor OrbánAnd the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modiwho have strong ties to Trump.
However, the Economist adds that Trump’s “chaotic” style and “capricious” personality make it difficult to predict what he will do if he takes control of the United States again.
