The economy growing but…

Albricias and good omens is what causes encouraging news like the one we Mexicans receive from INEGI. The institute, as an accredited institutional voice, has unveiled a panorama that makes us think that the pernicious effects of the pandemic have been left behind; sustained GDP growth in the order of 0.9% coupled with an increase in the global indicator of economic activity of the order of 0.7%, paint a storm-free outlook. However, without being pessimistic, but through a more careful analysis, we must know that the Mexican economy still has deep slopes, which do not allow us to fully perceive a picture of full recovery in social development. Thus, the pronounced effects of recovery due to the opening of the economy still keep us on a positive plane, but they will tend to become more and more reduced. Added to this is the inflationary pressure that, although it has tended downward at global levels, continues to push a sustained rise in the prices of goods and services.

The necessary elements exist to build a multilateral scenario of recovery that translates into collective well-being. However, accessing these elements is a task of opening and closing valves that demands enormous balance for a government whose priorities are equally located in electoral profitability. For example, investment in social development, specifically in social protection, has not yet been strictly evaluated to see if it really represents a relief to the national economic problem. Rather, they are funds that are handed over without knowing if we are really dealing with lost funds that do little to attack the problem. Such an issue is reflected in some red lights; working poverty goes from 38 to 40%, that is, the worker earns less and the prices of the basic basket continue to increase. And this is no longer a regional phenomenon, since in 27 of the 32 states, there was an increase in labor poverty rates and a decrease in labor income per capita weighted by 2.5 percent.

A growth of the economy compared to last year comes to give us an admirable positive. But, when we see the growth that occurred quarter by quarter, it is clear that we are facing an economic slowdown that is gradually taking shape. Thus, the growth between quarters has been in the order of 1.2, 1.1 and 0.9 percent. We are facing a global wave that has not finished showing a stable and solidly predictable behavior. What logic indicates is that interest rates will continue their upward trend and inflation will increasingly resist this control. As a country, the medium-term project should not allow waste of funds without controls and focus on creating conditions for greater productive investment that supports us with more reliable pillars.

Twitter: @gdeloya