The great challenge for the European Union

Almost a year after Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine, the end of the conflict does not seem close. What we thought would be an escalation in a few days has turned into a conflict that has affected a large part of the world and is at risk of stagnating. The world had not recovered from the health emergency when once again an international crisis dismantled all the plans that governments had to reestablish the economy after the bloodiest stage of the pandemic. In this context, the European Union (EU) is facing a new challenge that promises to test not only economic and administrative capacities, but also political and cohesion capacities. The year 2023 will demand a determined and assertive Europe that is capable of defining the objectives of continuing to collaborate with Ukraine in the conflict with Russia, as well as its possible accession, this in connection with the recent Ukraine-EU Summit.

The recent news of Germany sending Leopard tanks to the war front to support the Ukrainian army shows that aid and economic sanctions have not been enough to defeat the Kremlin. At the same time, discrepancies are evident among the leaders of the EU. Recently, we have witnessed disagreements between France and Germany related to the shipment of supplies to Ukraine, the negotiations regarding the joint purchase and caps on the price of gas, even the construction of a European anti-aircraft defense area. There are also differences between the countries (Eastern Europe) that propose much more seasoned European action in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, among those that are more cautious (Germany, France, Spain) and among those that are not willing to cooperate (Hungary). . Suffice it to remember that the shipment of the Leopard tanks was the result of pressure on the German government from some European partners, including Poland; and that Hungary and Austria recently announced that they will not send weapons to the Ukrainian front. Not to mention the upcoming debate that will arise from Zelensky’s request for fighter jets to be sent.

We cannot lose sight of the fact that it is crucial for the economy, not only for the European economy, but also for the world, that the conflict does not last much longer, since there is a risk that inflation will not subside, that the economic slowdown will be more prolonged, that the supply chains and production are damaged much more, that more people suffer from famine (as is beginning to happen in the Middle East), and that European citizens begin to doubt the action of their governments more than they already do.

In this scenario, what are the options for the EU? The first would be a much more open offensive that includes the supply of weapons and an air and land fleet, in order to defeat the Russian army in a shorter amount of time and force the Kremlin to accept the peace conditions that kyiv has put forward. The second option is to continue maintaining a measured policy betting on the wear and tear of Russia and eventually its capitulation (although the consequences for Europe would also be disastrous). The third consists of continuing with the sanctions, humanitarian and economic support for Ukraine, but generating a conciliatory policy towards Russia to engage in a dialogue for peace that begins to build something that has been pursued since the end of the Cold War: the establishment of a Euro-Atlantic security zone where Russia is included.

*The author is a member of the COMEXI Study and Reflection Unit on Europe+.