the imperatives of the Russia-Ukraine war

The world turned upside down in 2022. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine marked a before and after in the international order and in the configuration of geopolitical balances. The war made visible the game of insecurities and the unfolding of the chess games between central and regional powers, in order to take advantage of the catharsis and conquer more spaces of power and hegemony while increasing the margins of autonomy of the states to accredit a lower dependence on third countries.

The pristine return of the realpolitik is a reality. Vladimir Putin’s motivation to rewrite history, embrace revisionist politics and face that accumulation of nostalgia that led him to declare that “the dissolution of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century” have been the vectors of the mega shock suffered with this conflagration, whose large and small players seek to realign themselves in the face of the dictates of the new geopolitical environment and the cocktail of national interests.

Throughout a year of war, we witnessed the complete reconfiguration of geopolitical alliances in the world. The conflagration realigned the disparate interests between Russia and China to confront the supremacy of the West and defend a multipolar order that gives them a dignified place in the correlation of political forces, without subservience to Washington and questioning the exceptionally liberal American.

The invasion of Ukraine revitalized transatlantic relations by fortifying the European Union and NATO. After decades of public discussion, Sweden and Finland opted to join the world’s largest military alliance; Germany took a constitutional turn to break with its pacifism and Switzerland reconsidered its historical neutrality in war conflicts. As Joseph Borrell, the European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs, pointed out, the most substantive change was the birth of “geopolitical Europe” and the militaristic DNA of Brussels.

Putin intentionally kicked Washington’s China First policy. The message was relentless: before stopping, subtracting or counterbalancing China, they must first deal with Russia and address its historic claims. For the Russian top honcho, becoming a spectator to the Sino-American rivalry meant relegating him to an uncomfortable background and delaying Russia’s destiny as a superpower.

Putin’s geopolitical imperative has been brutal: the longed-for “peaceful century” will have to wait. Russia gains primacy if Europe returns to the global geopolitical scene. With this in mind, the Asian giant had to take advantage of the opportunity of the war in the European center to advance its agenda with Taiwan.

After the tectonic movements of global geopolitics, the economy had to undergo adjustments and rearrangements. Beyond the energy lag behind the reduction of Russian oil by Brussels, the starting point is once again marked by geography. Favor shorter and safer production and value chains, as well as prioritize commercial and business relations under the criteria of the near y allyshoring.

We cannot normalize this war. This is the largest military invasion of Europe and the most delicate moment since the end of World War II and the Cold War. A conflagration that is also part of the war between democracies and autocracies. The call for attention is to follow it closely because the new physiognomy of the world depends on it and the external parameter with which each country must work.

Rina Mussali is Coordinator of the Unit for the Study and Reflection of the Russia-Ukraine War, COMEXI.

@RinaMussali