Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller has frequently been the subject of trade speculation, a logical consequence of his high value on a struggling team. A trade would also offer ownership significant salary relief from the roughly $60 million remaining on his contract. However, parting with their ace could prove to be a profound misstep for the organization.
While General Manager Ben Cherington has faced criticism for past decisions, trading Keller could be his most consequential error. The stability Keller provides to the Pirates’ rotation is not easily replaceable, even with the team’s pitching depth in the minor leagues.
Since 2022, Keller has established himself as a pillar of durability and consistency. Over 111 starts, he has logged 644.1 innings with a 4.04 ERA (106 ERA+), a 3.82 FIP, and a 1.29 WHIP. While his 21.9% strikeout rate is around the league average, he maintains a solid 7% walk rate and a 0.99 HR/9 ratio, cementing his status as one of baseball’s most reliable starting pitchers.
His workload places him in an elite class. He is one of only 13 pitchers to exceed 640 innings in that span and among just 11 to do so with an above-average ERA+ and a FIP below 4.00. This puts him in the company of top arms like Logan Webb, Corbin Burnes, Framber Valdez, and Zack Wheeler.
His quality campaign has continued this season, where he holds a 3.58 ERA, 3.39 FIP, and 1.17 WHIP through 19 starts and 113 innings pitched. Though his strikeout percentage is down, he has compensated with career-best control, evidenced by a 5.7% walk rate and a 0.72 HR/9 ratio. Among pitchers with at least 19 starts and 110 innings this year, he is one of only 10 with both an ERA and FIP under 4.00.
In an era marked by frequent arm injuries, finding a pitcher who can consistently take the mound for 30 starts and deliver above-average production is rare. The Pirates’ internal options, like Bubba Chandler, Mike Burrows, and Braxton Ashcraft, have yet to demonstrate the durability required to fill such a role.
Furthermore, Keller is on an exceptionally team-friendly contract. Owed just over $55.7 million through the 2028 season, his deal represents a significant bargain compared to recent free-agent contracts for pitchers with similar or lesser track records. There is also no guarantee that the money saved from a potential trade would be reinvested meaningfully into the major league roster.
Considering his unique combination of elite durability, consistent production, and affordable control, an argument can be made that Keller is nearly as crucial to the Pirates’ future as phenom Paul Skenes. Even a trade that returns an All-Star caliber player would leave a massive and immediate void in the starting rotation, potentially setting the franchise back significantly.
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