The number of Americans filing new jobless claims fell modestly last week, suggesting that April was another month of strong job growth.
The report of work Department This Thursday also showed that jobless lists fell to their lowest level in 52 years in the first week of April, reinforcing tight labor market conditions.
The acute shortage of workers is keeping layoffs low, helping to fuel the inflation and forcing the Federal Reserve to adopt a restrictive monetary policy.
“Jobless claims at near-record lows mean workers’ wages will continue to rise and rise, ensuring inflation remains more persistent and at more worrying levels for longer than Fed officials believe.” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS in New York.
Initial claims for state jobless benefits decreased by 2,000, to a seasonally adjusted figure of 184,000 in the week ended April 16. Data for the previous week was revised to show 1,000 more claims than initially reported.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 180,000 claims for the latest week. For the week ending March 19, claims fell to 166,000, a more than 53-year low. The room for further declines is probably limited.
In March, the Fed raised the official interest rate by 25 basis points, its first hike in more than three years. Economists expect a rise of half a percentage point next month, with the US central bank soon starting to cut its asset holdings.
Subsidy applications, down from an all-time high of 6.137 million in early April 2020, will be closely watched to see if rising borrowing costs are dampening demand.
So far, job demand remains strong. The Fed Beige Bookbased on information collected through April 11 from central bank business contacts, showed on Wednesday that “demand for workers remained strong in most districts and industrial sectors,” but noted that “hiring was held back by a general lack of available workers.
At the end of February there were almost a record 11.3 million job openings. The unemployment rate stands at 3.6%, just a tenth of a percentage point above its pre-pandemic level.
But there are signs that the job offer will improve soon. The claims report showed the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid fell by 58,000 to 1.417 million during the week ending April 9. This is the lowest level of so-called continuous requests since February 1970.
Last week’s claims data covered the period during which the government surveyed business establishments for the nonfarm payrolls component of the April employment report. Claims increased slightly between the March and April payroll survey periods.
Economists expect strong job growth in April. Payrolls increased by 431,000 jobs in March, marking the 11th straight month of job growth above 400,000 jobs.
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