the past is you

Demolition Man. The image provided by the World Bank (WB) of Mexico in its report “Global Economic Outlook” cannot be characterized in any other way. As the notes in this regard point out, this is the first x-ray of a multilateral organization about the six-year term of López Obrador. This document not only analyzed the data for the first four years of government, but also made a forecast for 2023 and 2024, in which only a modest recovery is expected. It must be said that this year starts badly if we take into account that preliminary data from INEGI tells us that the last quarter of 2022 saw an economic decline that apparently will continue this year. If we add to this the increase in inflation in the first half of January and the risk of a recession later on, there are not many reasons for optimism.

Despite the morning demagogy, the WB stresses that in the first four years of government there was an economic decline of -0.9%. At the end of 2024, the Mexican economy will probably grow by less than half a point, becoming the most disastrous six-year term since Miguel de la Madrid’s in the eighties of the last century. Where were their attacks on the mediocre growth of neoliberal governments that barely grew by 2% as an annual average since the beginning of the century? All this had already been said in the press in our country. Carlos Urzúa, Macario Schettino or Enrique Quintana, to mention a few, have pointed out in different tones the disaster that AMLO will leave for years.

Compared to Latin America, Mexico is on the ground. According to the WB report, no other Latin American country will have growth as low in the period as Mexico. I quote the note published in Proceso: “According to the data and projections of the WB, between 2019 and 2024 the Brazilian economy will grow, in percentage points, 3.8 times more than the Mexican one; Argentina’s, 3.3 times more, and Guatemala’s eight times more… Even the GDP of Nicaragua, a country subjected to sanctions due to the repression and dictatorial measures of Daniel Ortega, will accumulate growth of 13.4% in the period 2019-2024, five times more than that of Mexico, which has not managed to recover the pre-pandemic economic level.”

According to the economist Héctor Nájera Catalán, quoted by the note, this is due to the drop in public and private investment and López Obrador’s decision not to implement fiscal stimulus policies with the greatest impact during the pandemic.

Indeed, with the refrain that his government would not bail out the companies, he denied any type of support to the private sector; instead, he tightened the screws on tax collection. But, on the other hand, he did not do much more for the people and the poor either. As will be remembered, in March 2020 he said that as part of the Tandas para el Bienestar program, one million credits of 25,000 pesos would be given to small businesses affected by the coronavirus pandemic in Mexico. Of that million credits, 500,000 would be for the formal sector of the economy and the rest for people who work in the informal sector. That same year he assured that two million jobs would be created. Does anyone know what happened to those offers? They just never came to fruition.

Worldwide, support to counteract the economic effects of the pandemic totaled 3.7% of GDP, on average. But there are extraordinary cases: Japan disbursed 21% of its GDP; Luxembourg 20% ​​and Belgium 19%. It will be said that they are rich countries and it is true, but the average for Latin America was 2.4% of GDP. Countries like Peru, Brazil, Paraguay, Chile, Argentina, Panama or Guatemala disbursed more than 3% of their GDP in support. Mexico only contributed 0.7% of its own. However, in the morning President López assured that with the social programs the population had been brought forward. A phrase from the morning of March 25, 2020 explains the logic of the president: “The people of Mexico are made to resist adversity and get ahead.” In short, don’t complain.

Often, in various topics such as the economy, health, environment or security, the figures corner you. Even the interventions of his morning flock, made to make him shine, have come to put him in trouble. So, his way out is that the previous neoliberal governments left the country to him like that.

The problem is that his government has been in office for four years now, four years in which there have been more setbacks than progress, many more failures than successes. Now, the past has caught up with him because four years after being president, he has become his own past. So when he blames the past, tell him: the past is you.