The tension between Russia and the West is increasing day by day against the backdrop of the ongoing war in Ukraine, as it is no longer a secret that the war is in fact going on between the Russian and Western parties, specifically America, according to the direct public political and military support, but the major parties are trying to stay away from confrontation. direct military action as much as possible to avoid a major war, as US President Joe Biden stated before the invasion, when he said that it would be a world war if the Americans and Russians started shooting at each other.
Events indicate that the western side is pouring oil on the fire by increasing military support for Ukraine and even making it more qualitative and accurate, but the Russian side is still controlling itself and controlling its movements, and this is not weakness or inability to resolve matters and control Ukraine as some think, but rather a tactic aimed at To achieve the goals with minimal losses, as Russia is not in a hurry in its military operation, as stated by more than one Russian politician and military.
Although Russia threatened at the beginning of the crisis that it would target any convoys or military aid from NATO to Ukraine, it did not implement this threat, and it seems that it was avoiding direct confrontation with NATO
There are two factors that most affect the duration of the war: the first is the increased military support for Ukraine, and the second is the sanctions imposed on Russia, and both seem to have seriously injured Russia, which indicates the difficulty or even the impossibility of ending the crisis at the present time, and both of them delay the Russian military decision, and so far has not There is a decline in either of them, but they are increasing.
Russia is currently using one of the pillars of its military doctrine, which is the policy of siege and suffocation of Ukrainian cities, and it has begun to reap the fruits of this matter in the city of Mariupol, which it controlled almost completely, leaving only a small area, but with the increase in victims and Ukrainian refugees, the West finds an excuse to continue providing weapons The quality, accuracy, and training of the Ukrainian army on it, which exacerbates the crisis and significantly increases the losses of the Russian army.
It can be said that targeting the Russian cruiser Moskva a few days ago will be a turning point and turning point in the conflict, as it came as a surprise to Russia in the capabilities of the Ukrainian army to target Russian naval units, and therefore Russia is mobilizing its forces now and wants to respond to this loss, and the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry expects that the battles will intensify Russia is carrying out a massive attack on the Donbass region, desiring to save face and provide something to the Russian people before the Russian Victory Day, which Russia celebrates on the ninth of May every year.
Although Russia threatened at the beginning of the crisis that it would target any convoys or military aid from NATO to Ukraine, it did not implement this threat; It seems that it was avoiding direct confrontation with NATO, but the increasing impact of this support on the course of affairs and the occurrence of not insignificant Russian losses prompted the Russian military to demand their government to fulfill its promise and implement this commitment, which is expected to happen soon, and therefore the fireball is rolling, and there will be no concession from One of the parties, and there will be desperate attempts by the Russian forces to achieve wide advances, even if a collision occurs with NATO, and this is confirmed by the Russian Foreign Ministry’s recent warning of the danger of an “unintended clash” between it and NATO in the Arctic region, in the context of NATO’s increasing military activities there.
This battle, as Russia has emphasized more than once, is a fateful and existential battle for it, and therefore it will not accept its loss. Rather, Putin and Russian politicians are talking clearly about the need to change the unipolar global system (the United States), which means that Russia is continuing to achieve Victory at all costs, and this calls for moving to the second phase of the war, which will be more fierce, which is confirmed by the recent repositioning of the Russian forces and their mobilization in the Ukrainian east in preparation for a strong advance.
Diplomatic efforts have failed to contain the crisis so far in light of the stubbornness of the two sides, and Turkey was the most prominent perpetrator of these attempts, and then the Arab League, through the visit of Arab foreign ministers to Russia, tried to bridge the views between it and Ukraine, but they were met by the Russian response that the war is not between Russia and Ukraine. In fact, until negotiations take place between them, rather it is between Russia and the West, led by the United States.
It is here that wars witness many surprises, and among these surprises that may occur and lead to changing the course of the war for the worse and expanding the conflict spot: China directly intervenes in this crisis, and it is a key ally of Russia, but it remains neutral so far, but the visit of the American delegation to Taiwan before Days has provoked China and pushed it to conduct huge military exercises in conjunction with the visit, in a message to the United States not to exceed its borders. It is no secret that China wants to annex Taiwan to it, and in this case it is possible that the Russian invasion of Ukraine stimulated this desire, and if China invaded Taiwan, things would be further complicated by Western sanctions that would be imposed on China, and it would be on one front with Russia against sanctions.
Also, one of the surprises that could widen the conflict and increase global turmoil is Israel’s action to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. Israel may take advantage of global tension in order to end this file, which has always been worrying it, and the possibility of this strike increases in the event of a nuclear agreement, Because Israel believes that this agreement will allow Iran to further enrich uranium, and says that it has reports that show Iran is about to acquire a nuclear weapon. Therefore, Israel may wait for the appropriate opportunity that it has not found so far, but it may be available soon in light of the escalation of the crisis.
Even in North Korea, it has not stopped developing its ballistic and nuclear capabilities, which constitutes a great provocation to Washington and Seoul, and Pyongyang recently threatened that it would respond to Seoul with its nuclear arsenal if the latter took military action against it, and therefore Washington was quick to respond to this threat by saying that it It will respond firmly to Pyongyang’s provocative actions.
Russia may find its help in forming an explicit alliance against NATO, which includes China, North Korea, Iran, Syria, Venezuela and the Caucasus countries, but is it possible that the conflict in Ukraine will turn into a third world war? The answer is yes, but it does not necessarily have to be a nuclear war, because the superpowers You are aware that nuclear weapons, if used, will bring destruction to everyone because many parties possess them, but nothing prevents the outbreak of a third world war with conventional weapons, and it may develop into tactical nuclear weapons of limited scope.
Experts believe that Russia may use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine in the future to accelerate the resolution of some areas, and this step may be the reason for the ignition of the war, as the United States had previously threatened that NATO would intervene if Russia used biological weapons in Ukraine, so how if it used nuclear weapons? !
Finally, it is clear that the features of the new world order have begun to resurface, where there will be multiple poles and not as the United States was alone, but this matter needs not a little time, but that the duration of the crisis may last for years, and the military crisis will be accompanied by economic crises that will throw Its shadow over all countries of the world, and the next stage is full of events and surprises in light of the trend of things towards more escalation.
