The smallness of the official majority

“The reform is not up for negotiation. We are not going to give up anything. Since it is not possible in the Constitution, in the secondary laws we are going to guarantee that the parties have fewer resources and the INE spends less,” said Ignacio Mier, coordinator of the Morena bench in the Chamber of Deputies. He pronounced these words in an informative assembly held on November 20, in Zacatlán, Puebla.

According to the versions that have transpired in the media, Morena has in mind to submit President López Obrador’s electoral reform initiative to a vote in the Chamber of Deputies, as he presented it, without moving a comma. Together with the Green Party and PT, she has the necessary votes to approve it in commissions, where only a simple majority is required.

The Green Party and PT will vote in favor in commissions begging that the opposition defeat the presidential initiative in plenary session of the Chamber of Deputies, where a qualified majority is needed for its approval. Morena’s junior partners have so far kept a low profile, but internally they reject López Obrador’s proposals on electoral matters. For them it represents giving up their existence as separate organizations from Morena.

President López Obrador and his party know that a new defeat awaits them in the plenary session of the Chamber of Deputies, which would add to the one they suffered after their attempt to introduce constitutional changes to restore the CFE’s monopoly power over the electricity industry. The leaders of the opposition parties –PAN, PRI, PRD and Movimiento Ciudadano– have announced that they will vote against a project that they see as an attempt by the ruling party to seize electoral institutions.

The march on November 13, which was attended by hundreds of thousands of citizens in defense of the INE, has served to reinforce this conviction. Likewise, the PAN and PRD have conditioned the continuation of the alliance with the PRI in the elections of the State of Mexico and Coahuila to the vote against the presidential initiative and the joint negotiation of the changes in the General Council of the INE. The PRI has a lot to lose if this time it goes off on its own.

López Obrador and his political operators are convinced that they can rescue a victory from the clutches of a new legislative defeat. For this they have prepared what they have called Plan B. It consists of a package of changes to the secondary legislation on electoral matters, which they will seek to approve a week after the rejection of the presidential initiative is consumed in the Chamber of Deputies. Morena and her allies intend to fast track it in early December.

The modifications to secondary legislation of Plan B have nothing to do with the electoral reform initiative of President López Obrador. They are a completely different thing. According to versions collected by the media, they consist of a package of various changes, ranging from merging INE executive directorates to suppressing the postal franchises of political parties.

The latter are hardly used and the remaining resources are returned to the Federation Treasury, thus the proposed change represents a harmless measure. However, the merger of the training and electoral organization directorates would mean a considerable cut to the operational structure of the INE. It would lead to layoffs of staff, including professional service officers with decades of experience organizing elections.

Plan B consists of a project that is born out of anger and frustration. More than a reform, it seems like a reprisal. Its approval would be far less damaging and destructive than President López Obrador’s original proposal. Even so, the smallness of the majority in power is not surprising.

*CIDE professor.

Twitter: @BenitoNacif