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The Asian Cup of Nations finals kick off on Friday, January 12, amid a sea of expectations regarding the identity of the new champion among the 24 teams aspiring to embrace the title at the end of the tournament.
In light of strong competition from teams such as Australia, Japan, Iran, Saudi Arabia and South Korea, which are looking to end their long wait after winning their only title in 1960, host Qatar hopes to defend its continental title.
Al-Anabi, which lifted the title for the first time in its history in 2019, by defeating the Japanese team in the final (the defending champion 4 times), will be under pressure while playing at home.
Before the start of the competitions, Opta, the world’s leading football data analysis website, conducted predictions in which it relied on a “super” computer that analyzed complex algorithms and information to reach the final prediction of the name of the winner of the 18th edition title.
Statistics indicated that the “Samurai Team” is the team most likely to win the continental crown at a rate of 24.6%, while the percentage of the South Korean team achieving the title was 14.3%, then Iran at a rate of 11.2%.
𝐀𝐬𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐂𝐮𝐩 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟑: Opta Predictions 🏆
The 2023 Asian Cup kicks off on Friday, so what better time to evaluate the Opta supercomputer predictions.
Japan are the team to beat, with the supercomputer giving them a 24.6% chance of success.#AsianCup2023 #AsianLetter
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) January 9, 2024
Japan’s chances in the tournament:
- Knockout: (95.6%).
- Quarter-finals: (57.2%).
- semi final: (36.5%).
- Final: (21.7%).
- Winning the title: (12.8%).
The Iranian national team – the winner of the largest number of matches in the history of the tournament (41 matches) and the largest number of goals (131 goals) – is the third candidate to win the cup with a percentage of 11.2%.
Iran’s fortunes:
- Knockout: (93.2%).
- Quarter-finals: (63%).
- Semi-final: (34.9%).
- Final: (21.2%).
- Winning the title: (11.2%).
On the other hand, the Australian and Saudi teams are competing for the title by 10.7% and 10.6%, respectively, while the probability of Al Annabi winning the title for the second time in a row is 9.8%, while the probability of the UAE team winning the title does not exceed 2.9%.
The chances of the Qatari team:
- Knockout: (88.6%).
- Quarter-finals: (58.6%).
- semi final: (34.5%).
- Final: (18.7%).
- Winning the title: (9.8%).
Saudi Arabia, which reached the final 6 times and won the title 3 times, hopes to repeat its success in 1988 on Qatari soil, and seems capable of topping Group 6, where it competes with Oman, Kyrgyzstan and Thailand.
Saudi Arabia’s fortunes:
- Knockout: (93.5%).
- Quarter-finals: (60.1%).
- semi final: (35.9%).
- Final: (19%).
- Winning the title: (10.6%).
It seems that Iraq, which won the Asian Cup in 2007, is the only team likely to compete with Japan in Group Four, as the chance of winning the title is approximately 16%, according to expectations.
Iraq’s fortunes:
- Knockout: (74.9%).
- Quarter-finals: (34.7%).
- semi final: (15.9%).
- Final: (6.8 %).
- Winning the title: (2.4 %).
The chances of the rest of the participating Arab teams seem non-existent to win the title and slim to reach the final rounds according to expectations, as the percentage of the UAE reaching the final was 2.9%, Oman 1.8%, Jordan 1.1%, and Syria 1%, while Bahrain, Lebanon and Palestine did not reach the 1% barrier.
