“The time has come for the United States to make it clear that it will defend Taiwan against China”

Tribune. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine leads many to reflect on the precariousness of the relationship between China and Taiwan. The situation in Ukraine and that in Taiwan have three similarities, but there are also important differences.

A first analogy lies in the considerable gap in military power between Taiwan and China, as between Ukraine and Russia. This gap continues to widen year after year. Second, neither Ukraine nor Taiwan have formal military allies. The two countries must face threats and attacks alone.

Thirdly, Russia and China being permanent members and having a right of veto in the Security Council of the United Nations, the mediation function of the UN cannot here intervene in the conflicts which involve them. We see it with the current aggression of Ukraine by Russia, and it would also be the case in the event of a crisis around Taiwan.

In the case of Taiwan, however, the situation is even more delicate. If Taiwan does not have allies, it intends to rely on the Taiwan Relations Act, a 1979 US law under which the United States provides the island state with military equipment and supplies “necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain sufficient self-defense capacity”. This law is a form of compensation for America’s reluctance to assert that it “will defend Taiwan” if it is attacked. It is time for this behavior to change.

Strategic Ambiguity Policy

In response to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, the United States quickly declared that it would not send troops to defend the kyiv regime. On the other hand, in the case of Taiwan, the United States applies a policy of strategic ambiguity. It is here that a second difference appears: the answer to the question of whether the United States would intervene by force in the event of a crisis involving Taiwan is not clear.

With the United States preferring to keep its position on how it would respond to aggression against Taiwan undetermined, China is (so far) dissuaded from venturing there militarily. Chinese leaders must indeed take into account the possibility of American military intervention. At the same time, the ambiguity of the United States forced Taiwan to consider the possibility that it would not intervene militarily, which tempered here the radical pro-independence groups on the island.

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