The Trilogy of Climate Change, Conflict and Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa | Politics

Conflict remains the leading cause of displacement worldwide. At the end of 2023, the UN estimated that 117.3 million people were displaced worldwide, including 68.3 million internally displaced people.

Climate change exacerbates this situation, acting as a threat multiplier that intensifies competition for resources, exacerbates conflicts, deepens social and economic disparities, and increases the vulnerability and fragility of societies.

Climate change also causes disasters that lead to displacement due to extreme weather events. In 2023, 20.3 million people were internally displaced worldwide as a result of these disasters, with floods, storms, droughts and wildfires being the main causes (International Center for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, 2024).

It is important to recognize that displacement affects different groups within a society in different ways. However, women, children, older persons and persons with disabilities often face increased risks and threats. Ensuring that responses are inclusive and address the specific needs of all groups is therefore critical. Empowering women as agents of change and resilience is also essential to achieving effective and sustainable solutions to displacement.

In the Middle East and North Africa, already one of the most conflict-affected regions in the world, climate change is expected to further destabilize fragile communities.

Drought, water shortages and extreme climate events are likely to increase displacement, putting further pressure on fragile public facilities and worsening living conditions for millions of people.

Recurring droughts have displaced nearly 140,000 people in Iraq through March 2024, according to IOM estimates. In Yemen, 240,000 people have been displaced in 2023, mostly by floods, in addition to the 4.5 million people displaced by ongoing conflict.

These numbers remind us of the urgent need to address this interconnected triad: climate change, conflict and migration, and the current floods in Sudan, which have added to the suffering of 16 months of war, confirm this as well.

However, the support needed for action is still not enough. In the Arab region, six least developed countries – three of which are affected by conflict – received only six percent of climate finance provided to the Arab region over the past decade (ESCWA, 2022).

It is essential to act quickly to mitigate the impact of climate change, in line with the Paris Agreement. But for fragile and vulnerable communities, it is equally important to help them build resilience and adapt, so that we can reduce, address and even prevent displacement and forced migration.

The recent Aswan Forum highlighted the urgent need to address the intersection of climate change, conflict and displacement. This topic was prominent in discussions in Egypt at COP27, in the UAE at COP28 and will be in Azerbaijan at the upcoming COP29.

One of IOM’s key strategic goals is to create more solutions to displacement. This work combines climate change and peacebuilding efforts, and focuses on making migration a choice rather than a necessity.

This work could not be more urgent. Around the world, and particularly in the Middle East and North Africa, conflicts are becoming more complex and persistent, amid weak governance systems, social inequalities, and environmental degradation.

The consequences of these complex conflicts are also increasingly serious. Evidence suggests that countries emerging from civil war need an average of 14 years to recover economically, and 25 years to rebuild systems and institutions.

Ongoing climate challenges, combined with growing humanitarian needs in these conflict-affected countries, will make peacebuilding, recovery and development an even more challenging task.

For this reason, climate action must be part of a comprehensive strategy that integrates relief, development and peace work.

We need a more proactive and preventive approach across the international community. We must invest in prioritizing prevention, in line with Sustainable Development Goal 16.1, which aims to significantly reduce all forms of violence and related deaths everywhere, and also in line with the UN Secretary-General’s New Agenda for Peace.

We must – with justice – reap the benefits of responsible innovation, use of technology, promote peaceful and inclusive societies, provide access to justice for all, and build effective and accountable institutions to harness the power of peace and development.

We will never be able to fully adapt to the full impacts of climate change without a genuine peace that ends the long and recurring conflicts that have led to so much displacement, especially in Africa. If the world is serious about achieving the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, world leaders must take serious steps to help end wars.

The interconnected reality of climate change, conflict and displacement is a complex and growing challenge that requires global engagement and cooperation. By acting early, investing in resilience building, strengthening government capacities or structures, and integrating climate action with humanitarian and development efforts, we can work towards a future where migration is a choice, not a necessity.