The United States estimates a long war in Ukraine and the risk of escalation

USA estimates that the war in ukraine will be long and that the Russian president Vladimir Putin he wants to extend it to Transnistria, even if it entails a military escalation and the establishment of martial law in Russia, according to the head of the intelligence services.

“We believe that President Putin is preparing for a long conflict in Ukraine, during which he still intends to achieve goals beyond Donbas,” he said. Avril Haines before Congress, at a time when deputies are preparing to unlock 40,000 million dollars for Ukraine.

The Russian army has given up on seizing kyiv and deployed in the south and east of the country, officially to “liberate” the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in Donbas, which could allow Moscow to fully control the Sea of ​​Azov and would guarantee a territorial continuity with Crimeapeninsula annexed by Moscow in 2014.

But this repositioning in Donbas “is only temporary” and the Russian army wants to continue its advance to create a “land bridge” in southern Ukraine, to the great port of Odessa and the border with Moldova, Haines explained.

The US intelligence services estimate that the Russian army wants to “extend” this land corridor to Transnistria, a secessionist region of Moldova that separated in 1990, when the Soviet Union and where the Russian army has a military base.

It is “possible” that the Russian forces achieve this goal in the coming months, but “they will not be able to reach Transnistria and include Odessa without decreeing a form of general mobilization,” Haines stressed.

Putin “is probably counting on a weakening of the determination of USA and the European Unionwhen food shortages worsen and energy prices rise,” he warned.

“Unpredictable Trajectory”

Putin’s ambitions outstrip the capabilities of the Russian military and that “likely means that in the coming months we will evolve along a more unpredictable and potentially escalating trajectory.”

The head of the military intelligence agency, General Scott Berrierclaimed that fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces had “stalled”.

But this could change. “If Russia doesn’t declare war and mobilizes, the stalemate will last and I don’t see a way out for either side,” she said.

“If they mobilize and declare war, thousands of soldiers will join the fighting and even if they are not necessarily as well trained or as competent (as the current forces), it will have a massive effect,” he warned.

Avril Haines, who oversees all US intelligence agencies, including the CIA, reiterated that Washington does not believe that Vladimir Putin be willing for now to use nuclear weapons.

“We continue to believe that President Putin will only authorize the use of nuclear weapons if he perceives an existential threat to the Russian state or regime,” he added.

However, the Russian president could resort to them “if he thinks he is losing the war in ukraine and the OTAN intervenes or prepares to intervene,” he said. But, even in this hypothesis, “it is likely to send signals” before doing so, he said.