This central bank lacks a strong voice

From the creator of “don’t raise the rate because inflation is temporary”, now comes the “let’s go for a decoupling of the decisions of the United States Federal Reserve (Fed)”.

Gerardo Esquivel, deputy governor of the Bank of Mexico, has a very personal vision of how to manage monetary policy, practically as if the central bank had the dual mission of taking care of purchasing power and full employment. And it is very good that you express it openly.

As well as Jonathan Heath, another very vocal deputy governor of the Mexican central bank, who has no qualms about expressing his views openly.

An effective central bank must be autonomous, technical, assertive, but also have a strong voice that is heard and influences the mood of economic agents.

In its almost 30 years of autonomy, Banxico has had the same head as a Miguel Mancera Aguayo, from the old guard, who had the transition; Guillermo Ortiz, architect of a sustained drop in inflation to stable levels and who was able to confront President Calderón; Agustín Carstens, didactic, metaphorical, with wide global recognition and with the best price stability record; and Alejandro Díaz de León, a student of the previous ones and with a voice that knew how to make himself heard.

It is a fact, today Banco de México lacks that voice of leadership that, in these moments of double challenge, high inflation and a government with authoritarian overtones, leaves no doubt about the central bank’s determination to fulfill its unique and autonomous mission. to have low and stable inflation in this country.

Of course, it is not possible to haggle with the Bank of Mexico that the trajectory of its majority decisions, some unanimous, has been correct.

They were not all, but some members of the Governing Board (using the language of their minutes) saw inflation coming as a phenomenon that would not be temporary and made majority decisions contrary to the vision of another who thought it would be something temporary.

None of us who have current credits at variable rates would like to see the central bank benchmark so close to 10%, but the value of keeping inflation low has become popular.

The exchange rate is stable and the monetary policy is credible, but Banxico lacks that commanding voice that reinforces with its words the technical decisions of the entire Governing Board.

Above all, due to the devaluation of the economic-financial messages expressed or coordinated from the National Palace.

Like which? Well, like that insistence of the Ministry of Finance that Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product is going to grow at 3% over the next year and if they fail, then it doesn’t matter, because their range starts at 1.2 percent.

No, it doesn’t seem like the time for Banxico to disassociate itself from the Fed, as one says, nor does it seem that we have to take an increase of 75 basis points in November for granted, as another says. That bank does it well, but it lacks a strong and credible voice like the ones before.

Banco de México lacks that commanding voice that reinforces with its words the technical decisions of the entire Governing Board.

ecampos@eleconomista.mx