TikTok — one of the biggest entertainment and social media platforms in the world — is due to be blocked in the United States this weekend.
If TikTok’s China-based parent company, ByteDance, doesn’t sell its US operations, and if the US Supreme Court doesn’t step in, the ban will take effect this Sunday, January 19.
Unnamed sources have told Reuters news agency that TikTok plans to shut down its app nationwide when the ban hits.
The following day, President-elect Donald Trump will be inaugurated. And, despite attempting his own ban during his first term in 2020, he’s now vowed to “save TikTok”.
It all sounds pretty extraordinary so we asked Tom Barrett, emerging-technology researcher at the United States Studies Centre, to help us unpack it.
Will the US really ban TikTok?
The US Congress has already passed the law to ban TikTok.
In March 2024, the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act passed the House of Representatives.
The House at that time was held by the Republicans, and the bill was then supported by the Democrat-controlled Senate, before President Joe Biden signed it into law.
Why is the US banning TikTok?
The act is framed around a foreign adversary — a country that is deemed a threat to the United States’ national security — having control over the app.
Tom Barrett says Congress is concerned about TikTok’s implications for national security. (United States Studies Centre)
TikTok has roughly 170 million American users, which means it has data from almost half the US population.
Mr Barrett says the US government is worried about China’s “collection of that information, access to it, and subsequent use of it”.
There are other major Chinese digital platforms in the US: It’s estimated 152 million Americans use online shopping hub Temu every month, which has their home addresses and other personal data TikTok doesn’t have access to.
However, Mr Barrett says the US government is particularly worried about the social media aspect of TikTok, bringing with it the possibility of disinformation and propaganda campaigns.
“[TikTok’s] ability to influence and manipulate their audience is that extra layer that makes it particularly concerning to Washington,” Mr Barrett says.
When will TikTok be banned?
This Sunday, January 19, is the deadline for ByteDance to sell its US operations to an American company, or face a nationwide ban.
There’s still the possibility of a last-minute sale before then, which would need China’s blessing.
TikTok could be banned in the US as soon as Sunday. (Getty: Chesnot)
While there have been rumours that tech billionaire Elon Musk is in talks with the company, this has been denied by TikTok.
The US Supreme Court heard arguments last weekend around the ban’s implications for freedom of speech and might still review or delay a ban. However, attitudes in the courtroom indicate they’re likely to side with the US government and uphold the law.
How will the ban work in practice?
Americans aren’t going to be jailed for looking at memes on TikTok.
Instead, the law puts the burden on app stores and cloud service providers, who cannot “distribute, maintain, or update” the application.
These companies face penalties of up to $US5,000 per user if they’re found to be in violation of the law — fines that could end up in the billions, given the app’s current popularity.
That means Google and Apple are likely to remove TikTok from their app stores, and Americans who don’t already have TikTok won’t be able to download it.
Users who have the app will be able to keep it, but won’t be able to update it, making it unusable over time.
It’s possible, though, that American users who try to open the app will see a message saying the service is no longer available in the country. This happens to users in India, which banned the app in 2020.
Cloud service providers are also held accountable under the new law, including Oracle, the American tech company that hosts most of TikTok’s US data.
Back in 2022, amid growing concerns around Chinese access to US data, TikTok began moving everything produced by American users to Oracle’s servers, which Mr Barrett explains was essentially “a pitch to the US government to say, ‘Hey, we’re trying'”.
Oracle may simply stop hosting this data on their servers, which could slow down the app for American users if it has to rely on non-US servers, or speed up a full shutdown.
And, finally, Mr Barrett says it’s possible TikTok will pre-empt all this by simply switching off the app themselves, with American users cut off overnight, an option Reuters has flagged the company is preparing for.
Reuters’ sources said a shutdown would protect TikTok service providers from legal liability. It would also allow TikTok to restore service for US users in a relatively short time if Trump opted to roll back any ban once he takes office.
Can’t Americans just use a VPN?
A Virtual Private Network, or VPN, encrypts your data and hides your IP address.
“VPNs are pretty common practice around the world for different reasons, including in other countries where social media platforms are unavailable,” Mr Barrett says.
He says there’s likely to be an uptick in VPN usage if the ban comes into effect on Sunday. But he doubts they’re a long-term solution.
“Again, you run into the issues of your app no longer working or updating, and there’s other variables regarding the location your app store registers you being in, which could be different to where your internet connection is coming from.”
Can Trump stop the US TikTok ban?
The TikTok ban passed with bipartisan support, but Trump has vowed to save it.
According to Mr Barrett, the returning president has two main options.
Firstly, after his inauguration, Trump could instruct the attorney-general to not enforce the ban, opening the door for companies like Apple, Google and Oracle to maintain access to TikTok.
“It’s unlikely, if you’re a compliance officer in one of those large companies that are at risk of being charged these penalties, that you would continue to provide [TikTok access] and break the law with the hope that the attorney-general does not enforce the ban,” Mr Barrett says.
President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to save TikTok. (Reuters: Carlos Barria, file photo)
Trump could use the language of the law itself around “qualified divestiture”. This means ByteDance could take certain steps to show a deal for TikTok with a US buyer is underway, and that could be enough for Trump to declare that TikTok is no longer controlled by a foreign adversary.
However, this is unlikely to happen until after Trump takes office, when the ban will already be in effect.
So, while it could reverse the ban, it’s unclear how this would play out for TikTok and its users: It might go straight back online, or the new buyer might want to make their own changes, delaying the app’s availability.
Mr Barrett says the law puts it “up to the president to determine when a qualified divestiture has taken place”.
Even if a deal was agreed, China could still prevent it, and Mr Barrett says they’ve indicated they’ll “veto any attempts” at a sale.
“Even if it was sold, the algorithm wouldn’t necessarily be sold with it, which is considered the core of what makes TikTok, TikTok.”
What could this mean for Australia?
How this all affects Australia will depend on what happens over the next week.
If Americans can no longer use TikTok, we won’t get new uploads from some of our favourite creators, and Australian influencers, artists and brands would lose their US audience.
TikTok users have already launched their own version of protest, downloading the Chinese “knock-off of TikTok” RedNote, where they call themselves “TikTok refugees”.
Mr Barrett noted this pointed to the weakness of the current US strategy of “whack-a-mole bans against new platforms, rather than a more strategic or comprehensive approach to tackling the perceived risks and protecting users”.
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Whether Australians follow suit and migrate to RedNote, or to Meta products like Instagram, is another story, and one that may be determined by our own government’s push to ban TikTok too.
