An article in the American Time magazine today highlighted many of the shocking events that the world witnessed this year, such as the attack by the Islamic Resistance Movement (agitation) on Israel, the subsequent Israeli aggression against Gaza, Chinese spy balloons, and the assassination of a president Wagner Group Russian Yevgeny Prigozhin.
The author of the article, Maha Hussein Aziz, a researcher at the Global Future Council on Complex Risks at the World Economic Forum, believes that shocking events are risks, or threats to stability, that are difficult to predict, despite being within the scope of prediction.
However, trying to define what they are can serve as a useful tool to help decision-makers, from policymakers and investors to businesses and nonprofits, prepare for unexpected challenges in the future. Among these shocking events that the author believes are worthy of study:
- First: Not much changed at the COP28 UN climate summit in December:
Despite leaders at the conference calling for a “just transition” away from fossil fuels by 2050, as governments continue to spend billions to support the industry, all signs point to the fact that we should expect more fossil fuel use, climate events, and societal displacement in the coming years. .
- Second: Environmental terrorism returns with an ugly face:
The author believes that there is another major potential danger if governments fail to stop fossil fuels, which is more climate action, but not only in terms of protests, which may become more violent in nature. The shocking event here would be if people devastated by a massive climate event formed a violent uprising against climate-inactive governments or oil companies.
This could also create a dangerous cycle of violence in which climate change deniers and eco-terrorists clash, while governments may become scapegoats and target legitimate activists.
- Third: Replacing the US dollar in international trade:
The author points out that the dollar is a major symbol (and weapon) of American hegemonic power. While it is unlikely to be replaced as the world’s reserve currency, its role in international trade is certainly under attack.
She pointed to repeated discussions about the new currency proposed by the intergovernmental organization BRICS, and calls for China to use its own currency for more trade at the 2023 BRICS summit. More oil trade has already moved away from the dollar, with China and India using their own currencies.
She added that non-oil trade is now looking beyond the dollar, for example, the UAE and Sri Lanka are exploring rupee transactions with India.
As a result, the shock will come when trade in other currencies against the dollar expands. This trend will develop over this decade, eroding US financial strength by 2030.
- Fourth: Artificial intelligence raises more conflict:
The writer pointed to the shocking expectations from technology leaders that if artificial intelligence is not regulated, it has the potential to destroy humanity. She added that there are legitimate concerns about artificial intelligence tools that could cause war.
Examples include fake videos that could accelerate tensions between two long-time rival nations, cyberattacks on presidential elections, or simply the use of artificial intelligence weapons that many researchers and industry leaders have warned could lead to World War III.
- Fifth: Trump’s return to the presidency of the United States:
The author points out that most forecasting centers in November 2023 still envision the victory of current President Joe Biden, but they currently prefer the return of former President Donald Trump. However, a lot could happen between now and November 2024, and the polls could be wrong.
But at this point it’s impossible to ignore the fact that President Biden’s poll numbers are flagging, that Trump has raised millions for his campaign, and that the indictments against him appear to have made him more popular with his voters.
The author believes that Trump’s return is the most likely of these shocks by 2025, and the most dangerous, and this means the return of internal and global unrest. For example, it is possible that hate crimes will rise internally as right-wing extremists become more emboldened, encouraged by Trump, who recently said at a rally that he would expel immigrants who support Hamas.
Globally, major risks such as climate change will decline, with climate disasters becoming more frequent, creating more climate and conflict refugees. He will cut aid to Ukraine, dramatically changing the outcome of the Ukraine-Russia war, reject Gaza refugees in support of Israel, and his second presidency will further destabilize the world order.
