The American Time magazine published an article by foreign affairs columnist and editor-in-chief Ian Bremer containing his predictions for the 10 most important risks in 2024, which included war expansion. Ukraine AndGaza And more imbalance in the political system in America, and a visible return El Nino.
The following is a review of the writer's expectations:
The United States against itself
The American political system will experience more dysfunction than any other advanced democracy, as the presidential election will deepen the country's political division, test American democracy to a degree not seen in 150 years and undermine US credibility internationally.
The Middle East is on the brink of abyss
The fighting in Gaza will expand, with several paths to escalation into a regional war, and may lead to conflict America AndIran directly into combat. The conflict will pose risks to the global economy, widen geopolitical and policy divisions, and fuel global “extremism.” The shortest path to escalation is a decision Israel or Hizb allah By attacking the other party.
Perhaps the militants will follow suit The Houthis Also an escalating path, and increasing Shiite militias in Iraq AndSyria From its attacks on American bases with Tehran’s blessing. No country involved in the Gaza conflict wants a regional conflict to break out, but the gunpowder is ready and the number of people who can detonate it makes the risk high.
Ukraine will be de facto divided this year, andRussia Advanced now on the battlefield and in financial resources. The year 2024 will be a turning point in the war. If Ukraine does not solve its manpower problems, increase arms production, and develop a realistic military strategy soon, its territorial losses may become sustainable and even expand. Kiev will take greater military risks this year, including strikes on more targets inside Russia that provoke unprecedented Russian responses and could attract… NATO To conflict.
Uncontrolled artificial intelligence
Technology will overtake AI governance in 2024 as regulatory efforts falter, technology companies remain largely unconstrained, and more powerful AI models and tools proliferate beyond governments' control.
The axis of villains and dangerous friends of America
This year Russia will strengthen andnorth korea Iran and Iran are building each other's capabilities and are acting in increasingly disturbing and coordinated ways on the world stage. Meanwhile, even Washington's friends – the leaders of Ukraine, Israel and perhaps… Taiwan– They will drag the United States into confrontations that it wants to avoid.
No recovery in China
The boss's grip will increase Xi Jinping The focus on power will be on stimulating large-scale consumption and on structural reform, so the performance of the Chinese economy will be weak throughout 2024. Beijing's failure to fix faltering economic growth, financial fragility, and a crisis of public confidence will reveal gaps in the leadership capabilities of…Communist Party of China It increases the risk of social instability.
The fight for rare earths
Critical minerals will be a critical component of every sector that drives growth, innovation, and national security in the 21st century, from clean energy to advanced computing, biotechnology, transportation, and defense. In 2024, governments around the world will intensify their use of industrial policies and trade restrictions that disrupt the flow of vital minerals.
There is no room for error
The shock will continue Inflation The global economy that began in 2021 will have a negative impact on the economy and politics in 2024. High interest rates caused by stubborn inflation will slow growth around the world, and governments will have little room to stimulate growth or respond to shocks, increasing the risks of financial stress, and disruptions. Social and political instability.
The return of El Nino
After a 4-year absence, a strong El Nino climate will reach its peak in the first half of this year, triggering extreme weather events that lead to food insecurity, increased water stress, disruption of logistics, spread of diseases, triggering migration and political instability, in particular In countries already weakened by the coronavirus pandemic and the energy and food price shocks resulting from the Ukraine war.
Customers, employees, and investors – most of them on the progressive side – have brought America's culture wars to corporate offices, and now courts, state legislatures, governors, and activist groups – mostly conservatives – will respond. Companies caught in the political and legal crossfire will face greater uncertainty and costs.
This will be another turbulent year for US-China relations, especially over Taiwan and technological competition, but domestic concerns have convinced both presidents joe biden Xi Jinping said that better-managed relations serve both sides.
And it will continue Populists In Europe in creating fear in the European political establishment, but limited setbacks for the main parties in European Parliament National and local elections will not overturn the European political system or hinder ambitions European Union Which has been rejuvenated by the Covid-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war.