Top A-level grades to fall by up to 16,000 as ‘soft’ Covid marking ends – despite school-leavers having missed teaching due to pandemic

The number of top A-level grades awarded is set to drop by up to 16,000 this year as the softer marking regime of the pandemic era is reversed.

A* and A grades could fall by around 7 per cent when pupils open their results on Thursday, according to a report from the University of Buckingham.

A* grades alone could fall by 11,000 – or 14 per cent, the paper predicts.

It means this year’s school-leavers may have it tougher than previous groups, as despite missing schooling due to Covid they have had no allowances made.

Exam officials in England originally aimed to return grading to pre-Covid levels in 2023, but results still ended up slightly higher. 

Buckingham education expert Professor Alan Smithers said: ‘August 2024 is when we can expect the grades to return to what they were in 2019.

A* and A grades could fall by around 7 per cent when pupils open their results on Thursday, according to a report from the University of Buckingham. Pictured: Stock image

Exam officials in England originally aimed to return grading to pre-Covid levels in 2023, but results still ended up slightly higher. Pictured: Stock image

Buckingham education expert Professor Alan Smithers said that August 2024 is when we can expect the grades to return to what they were in 2019

‘Restoring the value of grades is necessary, but it will be hard on the pupils who have had their education severely disrupted by lockdowns but are not receiving the enhanced grades of the year-groups before them.’

During the lockdowns of 2020 and 2021, pupils were forced to take their lessons online and missed months of in-person teaching. Exams were cancelled and results were instead based on teacher assessment, leading to over-generous marking and rampant grade inflation.

Proper testing returned in 2022, with grade boundaries gradually adjusted each year to return the level of difficulty to that of 2019. Last year, 27.2 per cent of A-level entries were awarded an A or A* grade, down from 36.4 per cent in 2022.

However, this was still higher than in 2019 – the last year that exams were taken before the pandemic – when 25.4 per cent got top grades.

If the share of A*/A grades were to fall by 1.8 percentage points this year to match 2019, it would translate to 16,149 fewer, or 6.6 per cent of the 244,028 awarded in 2023. 

However, Professor Smithers, who is director of the Centre for Education and Employment Research at Buckingham, said the political climate may prevent a drop from happening in England.

‘There is a new government which will be aware that many parents and pupils would welcome retaining the higher grades, fearing their loved ones will miss out on university places,’ he said.

His wide-ranging report also predicts that boys’ lead over girls in scoring more A* grades could widen this year, following a 0.3 percentage point gap in 2023.

A Department for Education spokesman said that this year’s A-level grading would ‘ensure qualifications maintain their value and students get the opportunities they deserve.’