Beirut- The history of confrontations extends between Hezbollah And Tel Aviv for several decades, where Israel launched wars and military operations against Lebanon I started from Litani Operation In March 1978, passing by1982 invasionThen “settling the score” in July 1993, and “Grapes of Wrath” in April 1996, leading up to the July 2006 war. Military confrontations have been taking place recently with the opening of a support front forGaza Strip It intensified two weeks ago.
The last confrontation between the two sides dates back to the July 2006 war, in which the party launched a surprise attack on the border and captured two Israeli soldiers, forcing Israel to enter into negotiations aimed at exchanging them with the party’s prisoners in its detention centers.
The war lasted 34 days and destroyed large areas of The southern suburb of Beirut And many towns and villages in South Lebanon. It resulted in the death of about 1,300 Lebanese, and the injury of about 4,000 others, in addition to the displacement of one million people.
Supporting Gaza
Military confrontations broke out on the southern Lebanese border following Operation “Al-Aqsa floodcarried out by the Islamic Resistance Movement (agitation) in Gaza against Israel at dawn on Saturday, October 7, 2023, and included a land, sea and air attack and the infiltration of resistance fighters into several settlements in “Gaza cover“.
Under the slogan “Supporting Gaza,” Hezbollah fired its first fire from the southern front the next day, October 8, when it carried out an attack on 3 Israeli positions in the area. Shebaa FarmsThen move on to targeting border sites and try as much as possible to maintain this level of targeting.
Today, with Operation “Al-Aqsa Flood” entering its first year, military operations in the south have developed radically, and support has moved to open confrontations between Hezbollah and Israel, which not only responded according to the traditional rules of engagement, but also expanded its aggression to include the southern suburbs andBekaa And the South is trying to impose new equations and strategies.
Lebanese researcher and political analyst Ali Ahmed believes that Hezbollah began the current war from the point where it ended in 2006, when the range of its missiles extended to… Haifa only. Today, the party has begun to operate from advanced locations including Haifa, Afula, and…Acre. When comparing his current capabilities, it can be seen that they are significantly superior to what they were in the past, he told Al Jazeera Net.
Regarding the party’s military capabilities, researcher Ahmed believes that they are enormous. In the “July War,” the number of its fighters ranged between several thousand, while today it is estimated at more than 10,000 fighters, with expectations indicating that the number may range between 12,000 and 14,000. This large number is considered an essential factor in the military equation.
The same spokesman points out that Hezbollah’s missile capabilities, especially in the field of drones, have witnessed remarkable development, and that there are missiles that Israel considers a major threat to its security. He explains that the Israelis “have excelled in the fields of security, artificial intelligence, and intelligence gathering.”
Shifting styles
While international relations researcher Ali Matar believes that there are radical changes in war strategies “between now and July,” and he believes that the Israeli dealings “was completely different in the July war from the current air operations,” as the areas in the Bekaa andBaalbek It was subjected to limited targeting in the past, while the bombing is now focused intensively on it.
He tells Al Jazeera Net that: Beirut area It had not been targeted previously, while today it witnessed the targeting of areas such as Al-Bashoura, Al-Kula, and Al-Muaysara with strikes that the Israelis consider precise and specific. It is believed that Israel is now targeting most of the places it deems necessary for its military operations, with a special focus on the southern suburbs and southern Lebanon.
The same researcher explains that the Israelis in the July War were not targeting these areas with the same intensity as is observed now. However, their criteria changed, as they sought to “make Hezbollah’s environment bear a price.”
According to Matar, the Israelis turned more towards a policy of assassinations, noting that they “were unable to implement them in the July War due to the lack of advanced technology,” but their current development gave them greater dynamism, as the Secretary-General of Hezbollah was assassinated. Hassan Nasrallah.
On the other hand, he believes that the party has overcome many barriers, as it has now been able to reach Tel Aviv and the settlements West BankHe fired many missiles at the northern settlements up to Haifa, and targeted new and advanced military bases.
Regarding missiles and weapons, the researcher points out that the drone weapon has witnessed great development in the hands of the party and that it still retains some weapons and missiles that have not yet revealed their full capabilities. However, tactics and ground attacks still face challenges, as Israel attempts to advance but faces stiff resistance.
Matar adds that entry Iran The front line represents a new development, as it “bombed the entire entity,” and there are other fronts operating, such as the Iraqi and Yemeni fronts, in addition to the aggression against Gaza. He explains that there are clear changes in the region at the level of the fronts and fighting in Lebanon and Gaza, and evidence indicates the possibility of a comprehensive war breaking out, something that was not on the table during the July War. But now the situation has changed significantly.
Alliances
At the level of internal alliances, writer Ali Ahmed believes that “the reality of the July War was more difficult than it is today.” Hezbollah’s military capabilities at that time were less, and it was facing intense pressure from a complex internal battle.
The support he received was limited, as he only had the Free Patriotic Movement, the Marada Movement, and the Amal Movement, who were his partners in various issues. In contrast, the Progressive Socialist Party was led by Walid JumblattandFuture Movement And many other Lebanese forces stand against him, according to researcher Ahmed.
He adds that this battle began coinciding with the events in Gaza, and it was considered a victory for it. Consequently, many citizens, especially in the Sunni and Druze streets, believed that what happened was support for the Palestinian cause. Although they were not fully allied with Hezbollah, they were, at least, neutral and considered its actions to be in the interests of Hezbollah. Palestine.
On the other hand, Ahmed points out the position of the Free Patriotic Movement during this battle, as it showed sympathy for the displaced, even though “the July War was considered by some to be a partnership with it.” Today, his role has become acceptable and good in the current context, in his opinion.
While researcher Matar points out noticeable changes in internal alliances since 2006, he considered that the current war has its roots in the Gaza war, and pointed out that the Sunni community fully supports this issue, in addition to the presence of support from Christians in Lebanon.
When reviewing the internal alliances in Lebanon, Matar points out the existence of a strong alliance in that period, which was the mainstay Emile Lahoud He holds the position of President of the Republic, which contributed to the effectiveness of the government. Currently, the country is experiencing the absence of a president, while there was an active government in 2006. “Today, we are in a period of caretaker government.”
The speaker highlights the close alliance that existed between Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement, of which Al-Emad was the mainstay Michel Aoun He represents a strong alliance with the party and stood by it during that period. However, he added that the situation has changed today and stressed that the Druze and Sunni communities also stand with the party. He points out that there is a part of society and political forces that oppose this support or confrontation, as was the case in 2006 against the party, and therefore alliances change and develop at the regional and local levels, which highlights the dynamics of the internal conflict and its complexities, according to his opinion..
