Topline
President-elect Donald Trump urged Congress to pass “one powerful bill” to enact his border, energy and tax policies “as soon as possible,” though such a sweeping package is likely to face significant hurdles as Republicans face a slim majority in the House and some GOP resistance to tying their border priorities with tax and energy policy.
President-elect Donald Trump and his wife Melania Trump arrive on New Year’s Eve at Mar-A-Lago Club … [+]
Key Facts
Trump wrote on Truth Social Sunday he wants the package to extend the 2017 tax cuts enacted during his first term, plus his proposal for no taxes on tips, and said the cuts will be paid for with his proposed increases in foreign tariffs, though it’s unclear if the bill will include the tariffs, which Trump could theoretically enact without congressional approval.
It’s unclear which border and energy policies will be reflected in the bill Republicans are laying out, and many of Trump’s proposals are expected to be enacted via executive order, though some—such as hiring more Border Patrol agents—will require additional funding Congress will need to approve as part of its annual budget process.
On immigration, Trump has said he will impose mass deportations of undocumented immigrants and has floated using military resources to achieve the directive, he’s also said he will make it more difficult for migrants to seek asylum, end expedited parole processes enacted under President Joe Biden and reinstate the “remain in Mexico” program that requires migrants to stay in Mexico while their immigration cases are heard.
Trump’s energy proposals include rolling back Biden’s policies to increase electric vehicle production, boosting U.S. oil and natural gas production, including by restoring offshore oil and gas leasing, and possibly repealing tax incentives to support green energy initiatives.
Trump endorsed the single-bill approach after House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., told Fox Business on Sunday Trump prefers “one big, beautiful bill” and said Congress would be “aggressive about getting this through in the first 100 days,” with a goal of passing the package in April.
Key Background
After winning House and Senate majorities, Republicans were widely expected to push Trump-era tax cut extensions and other priorities using Congress’ reconciliation process, which allows them to pass legislation through the Senate with just a simple majority and avoid the 60-vote filibuster rule. Lawmakers have debated whether to pass his agenda in one bill or two. The single-bill approach prevents Republican leadership from having to wrangle its members twice to unite as the GOP can afford to lose just one vote under the 217-215 majority it’s set to hold when two members join the Trump administration, before the vacancy left by former Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla. is filled in a special election slated for April 1.
Chief Critic
Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., told Fox Business on Sunday he was “very worried” that adjoining border security with energy and tax policy would threaten its passage. “I’m very worried that if we don’t put border first and get it done, it’s going to be a nightmare for our national security,” Graham said. Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., has also expressed concerns, telling Politico, “I certainly support a two-step process, give President Trump the funds he needs to secure the border . . . and then take our time to make sure we don’t have a massive tax increase in 2026.” The right-wing House Freedom Caucus in December also sent Johnson a letter advocating for a single bill to cover border security, and incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., reportedly backed the two-step approach favored by Graham and Smith that would allow Congress to first enact Trump’s border policies, though it’s unclear if he’s shifted course now that Trump has called for a single-bill approach.
Is Trump Open To Splitting His Bill In Two?
Trump acknowledged to talk radio host Hugh Hewitt some Republicans don’t want to put all of his priorities in a single bill, and suggested he’s open to dividing it in two, though he prefers one bill, which he called a “cleaner” approach.
What We Don’t Know
It’s unclear if Trump’s tariff proposals would pay for the extension of his 2017 tax cuts, plus his proposals to exempt taxes on overtime pay and tips and to lift the cap on the state and local tax (SALT) deduction—a move favored by Republicans from higher-tax states. The nonpartisan Tax Policy Center estimates a 20% tariff on all imports, plus 60% on imports from China, would not be enough to offset the loss in revenue from his tax policies and projects a cost of $1.9 trillion over the next 10 years. Trump denied a Monday Washington Post report that he would instead impose a targeted tariff plan, rather than an universal levy, as part of a reportedly “pared back” approach to his promises on the campaign trail. The Post report “incorrectly states that my tariff policy will be pared back,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform, calling it “just another example of Fake News.”
Tangent
In addition to Trump’s plans to extend his tax cuts, many of which expire at the end of the year, the bill is also likely to include an increase to the debt limit, raising another contentious issue that will be hard for Republicans to unite behind. Some lawmakers are skeptical of raising the debt limit—which is necessary to prevent the government from going into default—without cuts to spending. Johnson acknowledged there were “a lot of things to negotiate, a lot of opinions on” the debt limit in his interview with Fox on Sunday. Congress last month rejected Trump’s push to pass a two-year extension of the debt limit suspension, which expires Jan. 2.
Further Reading
Republicans Lean Toward ‘One Big, Beautiful Bill’ for Trump Agenda (Wall Street Journal)
Johnson tells House Republicans that Trump wants one ‘big beautiful’ reconciliation package (Politico)
GOP congressional leaders set the stage to move on Trump’s agenda (CNN)
