A national poll of registered voters carried out last week shows Biden leading Trump by 52 per cent to 42 per cent, virtually unchanged over the last two weeks and in-line with a lead the Democrat has held for months.
But the poll also shows Trump gaining ground in 12 swing states that are crucial to election victory – where Biden now leads 51 per cent to 45 per cent, cutting the former Vice President’s lead from 10 points to 6 points in a little over a month.
Six points is within the survey’s margin of error, meaning there is now the possibility of a Trump upset in those states, which could hand him a second term in office.
Nationally, Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump by 10 points – virtually unchanged from the lead he held two weeks ago, and in line with polls going back months
But Trump is gaining ground in 12 swing states – Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – bringing down Biden’s lead to six points, within the margin of error
The picture is complicated by the fact that Biden holds a lead of 61 per cent to 35 per cent among early voters, but Trump holds a lead of 61 per cent to 32 per cent with those who plan to vote on election day.
The poll was carried out by the Wall Street Journal and NBC, and collected data from 1,000 registered voters by phone between October 29 and 31.
The poll does not break down the so-called ‘swing states’ individually, but instead gives a single average figure across all those states.
States included in that figure are Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
The poll was carried out by Republican pollster Bill McInturff and Democrat Jeff Horwitt.
It showed that while Trump’s support has fallen among women and seniors – two big groups that turned out for him in 2016 – it remains rock-steady among white, working class voters who exist in large numbers in all the swing states.
‘This election is probably the most competitive 10-point race I’ve seen,’ McInturff told the Wall Street Journal.
Joe Biden is relying on a huge turnout among early and postal voters to win the election for him before polling day even gets underway
Trump is banking on a late surge in support by those intending to vote on election day that will tip the balance in his favor
‘The RNC has spent how many millions of dollars? And the only thing they’ve focused on is turnout of noncollege, white voters, especially in about six states.’
The poll showed that Trump leads Biden among white voters, whites without degrees, and has a very narrow lead with men – 48 per cent to 47 per cent.
Biden holds the lead over Trump with black voters, young voters ages 18-34, seniors, women, whites with college degrees and independents, according to the poll.
A majority of those polled said Trump is doing a bad job as president – 44 per cent approve to 54 per cent disapprove – while similar numbers said he is doing a bad job with coronavirus.
However, a majority – 55 per cent to 41 per cent – approve of his handling of the economy, one of only a few bright spots for Trump in the survey.
The survey also showed that 60 per cent of voters believe that the country is on the wrong track, with 55 per cent saying that the worst is yet to come.
Monday marks the final full day of campaigning for Trump and Biden, with each hoping to tip the race in their favor in the closing stages.
93million Americans have already voted in this election, two thirds of the total that voted in 2016 (pictured, early voters line up in Cincinnati)
More than 93 million people have already voted and each campaign insists it has a pathway to victory, though Mr Biden’s options for picking up the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win are more plentiful.
Mr Trump is banking on a surge of enthusiasm from his most loyal supporters in the swing states, allowing him to eke out an electoral college win without winning the popular vote.
Heading into the closing 24 hours, Mr Trump and Mr Biden each painted the other as unfit for office and described the next four years in near apocalyptic terms if the other were to win.
The incumbent president told a rally in Iowa: ‘The Biden plan will turn America into a prison state locking you down while letting the far-left rioters roam free to loot and burn.’
Mr Biden said America was on the verge of putting ‘an end to a presidency that’s fanned the flames of hate’.
Speaking in Philadelphia, the biggest city in a state that could decide the presidency, he said: ‘When America is heard, I believe the message is going to be clear: It’s time for Donald Trump to pack his bags and go home.
‘We’re done with the chaos, the tweets, the anger, the hate.’