Costco (COST) is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter earnings results after market close on Thursday, navigating a volatile consumer environment, tariff-related pressures, and competition from rivals like Walmart’s (WMT) Sam’s Club.
According to Bloomberg consensus estimates, the wholesale giant is expected to post revenue of $86.03 billion and adjusted earnings of $5.82 per share for the quarter. Same-store sales are projected to grow 6.2% overall, with a 6.1% rise in the U.S., 6.8% in Canada, and 7.2% across other international markets. This forecast slightly exceeds the 5.9% same-store sales growth that Sam’s Club reported in its latest results.
For its 2025 fiscal year, Wall Street anticipates Costco will reach $275.1 billion in annual revenue, with adjusted earnings per share of $18.10 and same-store sales growth of 7.5%. Despite these projections, Costco’s stock has underperformed this year, gaining about 3% year-to-date compared to the S&P 500’s 13.5% advance.
Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s long-term prospects. Oppenheimer’s Rupesh Parikh holds a “very favorable” view, citing Costco’s value proposition, global growth, and consistent shareholder returns. Parikh believes its management team can deliver “sustainable top and bottom-line” results even against a more competitive retail backdrop.
However, the competitive landscape is intensifying. Parikh noted that since Amazon launched its same-day delivery initiative, Costco’s stock—along with peers like BJ’s (BJ), Dollar General (DG), and Kroger (KR)—has underperformed.
Regarding trade policy, analysts believe Costco is well-equipped to handle tariff impacts. “We believe Costco is well positioned to win share and leverage scale and supply chain strengths to navigate tariff impacts,” wrote Evercore ISI analyst Greg Melich.
On a previous earnings call, CEO Ron Vachris clarified the company’s exposure, stating that one-third of its U.S. sales are from imported goods, with Chinese imports making up 8% of total U.S. sales.
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