Surprisingly to international public opinion, and Arab in particular, the name of the statelet of Guyana appeared on the surface of South American news, accompanied by indications of a military invasion on the horizon, announced by its western neighbor Venezuela, which signaled its intention to annex the disputed Essequibo region with Guyana.
In view of the momentum imposed by the news, the Security Council, last Friday, included the topic in its list of discussions. But in reality, despite the uproar caused by Venezuela’s threats, and Guyana’s mobilization, under the influence of London and Washington, some analysts say: We will not see flour, and it is likely that the matter is merely a political plan by President Maduro, imposed by the upcoming presidential elections.
Historical dispute
Before learning about the historical conflict between Venezuela and its eastern neighbor, Guyana, and the validity of each party’s arguments in proving its ownership of the Essequibo region, located between them, it is necessary to know the geography of the region.
The state of British Guiana – as it is known – represents, along with Suriname and French Guiana, three small states, located in the northeastern part of the South American hemisphere. Three of them were occupied by colonial powers, after the Spanish conquest, the most important of which are: the Netherlands, France, Sweden, and the United Kingdom in relation to Guyana. The subject of our conversation, known for its mineral and agricultural wealth previously, and more recently its oil wealth. Knowing that Guyana is currently included with other countries under the group of English-speaking “Commonwealth countries”.
As for the Essequibo region, the subject of the dispute between Venezuela and British Guiana, its name comes from the name of the longest river in Guyana, which flows into the Atlantic Ocean in the north, and divides the country vertically, making a third of its area fall to its east, and two-thirds to its west, and this last region is the area that represented the subject of The dispute over its ownership has been going on for centuries, and has now been renewed.
Venezuela considers the region an extension of its area, since 1777 AD; In compliance with the borders drawn by the Spanish rule in that period.
On the other hand, Guyana considers it its property, based on the borders drawn by the British, after they penetrated into the Essequibo region and exploited its vast mining wealth, and imposed the current borders, while Venezuela was busy at the beginning of the nineteenth century with freedom from Spanish rule.
The dispute was renewed with the discovery of gold and silver mines in the region by the British, but international arbitration led to the issuance of a ruling in favor of the British side, known as the “Paris International Arbitration Decision” in 1899 AD.
However, in 1949, Venezuela obtained documents proving that one of the five members of the court – who was considered the only neutral – obeyed and voted in favor of the British side, which led to Venezuela resorting to the United Nations. The peaceful conflict between the two sides continued, to no avail, until Guyana’s independence in 1966 AD, when it maintained its ownership of Essequibo, given that the negotiations were with the British.
In fact, the attempts of successive Venezuelan governments – with the exception of the government of the late leader Chavez, which was preoccupied with completely different ideological expansionist goals – have not succeeded in resolving the position of Guyana, which has become more aided in the battle, with the continued discovery of natural resources in the region, in a large way, such as diamonds and more. Of gold and silver in the Essequibo jungle.
Flowing riches
However, with the beginning of Guyana’s discovery of huge quantities of oil and gas in the territorial waters of the Essequibo – on the Atlantic Ocean, in 2015 AD – it resorted, unilaterally, to the International Court of Justice, and subsequently contracted with an American oil company, and began exploring for oil with companies. Other foreign.
This coincided with the economic crisis that Venezuela was going through, and the severity of the American blockade on it, which prompted President Maduro, at that time, to denounce to the United Nations the illegality of the exploration operations carried out by Guyana, but that did not change anything of reality, and it continued. It is what it is.
It is clear that the frustration with the international situation that the Venezuelan government is experiencing has caused its reaction to witness a noticeable escalation in the last two weeks, as President Maduro called on his people to vote in a referendum the Sunday before last, in which 95% of voters agreed to annex Essequibo to Venezuela.
The president also ordered changing the country’s map in all departments and school curricula, and starting granting licenses for oil and gas exploitation and mineral extraction to the Venezuelan state oil company, in addition to mobilizing special military forces with the aim of deploying in the region. This is what the President of Guyana, Irfaan Ali, (a Muslim by religion) considered a direct threat to his country’s sovereignty and independence.
Public anger
In fact, there are contexts for these developments that are worth mentioning in order to clarify the scene on both sides. Guyana’s economy witnessed a qualitative leap with the discovery of oil in the territorial waters of the Essequibo region, which brought its gross domestic product to 58% last year. It is also expected that its oil production will reach the size of Venezuela’s current production in 2027, knowing that its population does not exceed 800 thousand people. In anticipation of this stage of tension, American sources revealed that Guyana is quickly coordinating with Washington to establish an American military base in the Essequibo region, which prompted the government of Venezuela to file a complaint with the United Nations two months ago.
As for the internal Venezuelan context, it seems that the government of President Maduro is aware of the difficulty of achieving the result of the referendum, through the umbrella of protection provided by the American administration and its British counterpart to Guyana.
But the developments in the electoral scene among the opposition made President Maduro move the card of defending sovereignty, to court the national feeling of public opinion, and to woo them to support him and his government in order to unjustly defend the country’s rights from the imaginary wealth that is unique to Guyana.
It should be noted that the late leader Chavez ruled Venezuela from 1999 to 2013, and his immediate successor was his comrade, current President Maduro, who intends to run for a third term next October.
Despite the harassment President Maduro witnessed from the opposition in previous electoral stages, he and his party figures were able to cling to power and defeat the opposition, especially in 2019.
But the recent growing popular anger, and the opposition’s agreement on Maria Corina Machado as the only candidate to face President Maduro in 2024, made moving the Essequibo annexation card – which no two Venezuelans disagree on – a necessity to rally around an existing and strong government, which rules out the risk of voting for the opposition to take over. Judgment.
This opinion may be incorrect, but the coming months will certainly reveal whether President Maduro’s threats are serious or not.
