Voters in northern Virginia are heading to the polls Tuesday for a special election that could further tighten the Republican party’s slim majority in the House of Representatives. A Democratic victory would reduce the GOP’s margin, meaning Speaker Mike Johnson could only afford to lose two Republican votes on party-line legislation, down from the current three.
The election in the 11th Congressional District will fill the seat of longtime Democratic Rep. Gerry Connolly, who died from cancer in May. Democrat James Walkinshaw, Connolly’s former chief of staff and a current Fairfax County supervisor, is heavily favored in the race against Republican Stewart Whitson, a military veteran and former FBI agent.
Located in the Washington, DC suburbs, the heavily Democratic district encompasses a large portion of Fairfax County and is home to a significant number of federal employees. In the 2024 presidential election, the district favored Kamala Harris over Donald Trump by 34 percentage points, the same margin by which Connolly won his last reelection.
House Democrats are looking to regain seats after a series of member deaths widened the GOP’s majority. Connolly was the third House Democrat to die in office this year, following Reps. Sylvester Turner of Texas and Raul Grijalva of Arizona in March. The resignation of Republican Rep. Mark Green of Tennessee in July brought the current House composition to 219 Republicans and 212 Democrats.
All three vacant Democratic seats are expected to be filled before Green’s is replaced in December, putting additional pressure on the GOP leadership. The special election to replace Grijalva is scheduled for September 23, and the election for Turner’s seat will be held on November 4. Both districts are anticipated to remain in Democratic control.
The incoming Democrats could have an immediate legislative impact, particularly on a bipartisan effort to force a vote on releasing the Jeffrey Epstein files. The discharge petition, led by Republican Rep. Thomas Massie and Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna, requires 218 signatures to proceed. Proponents claim they currently have 216.
“We have the 218 votes. 216 already support it,” Khanna said Sunday on ABC’s This Week. “There are two vacancies that haven’t been reported as much, but two Democrats are going to be joining, and they are both committed to signing it. That’s going to happen by the end of September.”
