What did AMLO mean with Banamex and Larrea?

What did AMLO mean with his comments about Banamex and Germán Larrea? The president must be read between the lines. Tuesday morning he chose the sale of Banamex as one of the topics. Guessing why he decided to bring up this matter is almost as important as interpreting what he said.

The president spoke about Banamex because it is a relevant issue and because it may be favorable for him to frame this operation in a narrative of the Mexicanization of banks that operate in Mexican territory. One of the most emblematic banks is once again in Mexican hands, after two decades of US ownership. Delving into the subject also helps him to mark differences with what happened in the six-year term of Vicente Fox where the sale to Citi did not mean the collection of taxes for the Government (the sale of shares was not taxed then). Now they will pay, he has said over and over again.

That’s all? Here I want to venture a hypothesis: AMLO chose to talk about this purchase-sale, perhaps, so as not to have to refer to a matter that is extremely uncomfortable for him: the “appearance” of a 30 million-peso apartment in the estate of the Secretary of the National Defense, Luis Crescencio Sandoval. The property, according to an investigation by Mexicanos contra la Corrupción, was purchased for 9 million pesos from an Army supplier that in 2022 received contracts from the armed forces for 319 million pesos. The issue does not end with the president’s silence. Let us remember that the Secretary of Defense is a public official who in theory earns less than the president and who recently made a pleasure trip through Europe that cost more than 2.6 million pesos in one week.

Is the sale of Banamex imminent? This was the reading that many communicators made: the president says that he has information that the negotiation is very advanced and, therefore, this means that the operation is almost closed (is it now?… it is a sale process that started in January 2022). What the president said coincides with what some columnists have published, beginning with Darío Celis, who said two weeks ago that the deal was closed and that the final price would be around 7.1 billion dollars, for 80% of the shares. Actions.

If the president has more information, he did not say it. He did well, because it is information that is worth a lot in the markets and its dissemination is regulated. Misuse of this information is considered a crime. It could generate market movements worth millions of dollars, in the shares of Citi or Grupo México. The only official conduit for the announcement will be the New York Stock Exchange, where Citigroup is listed and had a market capitalization of $88.15 billion. Most likely, the announcement, Maricarmen Cortés dixit, will be made before the markets open or after they have closed.

When will the announcement be? Assuming that we are in the last step of the negotiation, it is not clear if this step measures half a meter or a kilometer. It can be hours or weeks. Among the points that have complicated the closing of the operation is the value of the legal contingencies that Citi will inherit from the buyer, for example Oceanography.

Let’s go back in the morning. The president said that he had no problem with the operation being carried out and that the buyer was German Larrea, “we have differences with them, but that is another matter… in the case of the sale or purchase of the bank there is no problem “, said. It is striking that I speak of differences in the present, “we have differences,” said the president. What is it referring to? The first thing one thinks of is the new Mining Law. Germán Larrea Mota Velasco is the largest mining businessman in Mexico and one of the five largest copper producers in the world. He is an extremely discreet man. He does not give interviews, nor does he make statements. It is known that he has a fierce fight with Napoleón Gómez Urrutia, union leader of the mining sector and senator for the 4T.

Larrea is surely worried about the relationship with AMLO, but also about finding a way to make his imminent investment in Banamex profitable. His business does not have obvious synergies with banking. He is a leader in the mining sector and in railways, where he has around half of the concessions in Mexico. He has no banking experience, but perhaps makes up for that with a fortune of $28.5 billion. It is the second largest fortune in Mexico, only behind Carlos Slim. Will he reach you with it to succeed in a sector in the process of competitive mutation?

lmgonzalez@eleconomista.com.mx