When you vote US President, the whole world is watching and following, because this event has a global impact, as billions of people who do not have the right to vote are affected by the outcome of the elections.
I am the East Ukraine From the devastating ruins of Gaza and the conflict in the Taiwan Strait, to the packed buses running through the streets of Tehran, the high-rises of Beijing and the warm, wood-floored rooms of Moscow’s presidential administration, the same question is being asked: Who will win on Tuesday night?
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Ukraine
Ed Arnold, of the Royal United Services Institute, says that everyone in Ukraine is well aware that the country’s survival depends on the United States. It is true that not only does Kiev depend on American weapons, vehicles and ammunition, but Ukraine’s British, European and other allies are not in a position to provide “any “Something similar” to the same level of support if the US contribution diminished or disappeared, so the outcome of the US election is literally an existential matter.
But the candidates have been very vague about their plans for Ukraine, and there is no consensus on who will be better or less bad. Regarding this, former Ukrainian Defense Minister Andrey Zagorodnyuk says, “They are like 4 competing opinions. I cannot be sure which of them is the most common.”
He adds, “With… Kamala HarrisThe more pessimistic view, which is very common, is that if she wins, she will almost certainly continue with the policy joe bidenAnd we will be in this war for a very long time. Of course, some people say, “No, it will be different.” Some optimists believe that it will be much more effective and end the war.
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Before Biden withdrew from the presidential race, Putin publicly said that the current president was the better choice for Russia, as he was more predictable and more traditional in his understanding of statecraft.
But these statements are seen as aimed at harming Harris and helping her Republican rival Donald Trump.
As for Trump, he repeated on more than one occasion during his election campaign that if he wins, he will talk to the two Russian presidents Vladimir Putin And Ukrainian Volodymyr Zelensky To impose a peace agreement, before his inauguration next January, but he did not explain how to do so.
“Some people are afraid that he will make a deal with Putin, we will lose the occupied territories, and he will say, ‘If you disagree, I will not send anything at all,'” Zagorodnyuk says.
What reinforces these fears is that J. The Fans Who was chosen by Trump as a deputy in his election campaign, had previously said that Russia has the right to keep the lands it occupied and the rest of Ukraine should not be allowed to join the alliance. NATO Or to another foreign alliance, which is seen as a major Russian victory.
Israel
Interest in the US elections this year appears different in Israel than in the past. “In the past, there was no broadcast because it was taking place at midnight for us, but this year, we will broadcast it from 11 p.m. until the morning,” says Amit Segal, the main political commentator for Israel’s Channel 12.
He explains that this is “not because the Israelis know the details of this impossible system of electoral society, but they are fully aware of the importance of the result and its repercussions for them.”
Unlike Ukraine, there is not much ambiguity about who the Israelis want to be president of the United States. If Israel were the 51st US state, it would certainly be red for Republicans.
Segal explains that this is because of the war, “and more than that, it is because of the development of a vision in Israel that the Democratic Party and the international left in general are not friends of Israel, but rather enemies.”
He says that the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “Ruthlessly” exploited Biden’s fear that the dispute with the Israeli government might alienate pro-Israel voters, so he carried out two controversial operations, the invasion of Lebanon on the first of last October, and the massacres he committed in Jabalia in northern Gaza days later, considering that these events It might not have gone so easily if the US elections had not been looming on the horizon.
Many Israelis believe that a Harris victory would give Iran the upper hand And enthusiasm andHezbollah A reason for hope for an American-Israeli division, and thus an incentive to continue the fighting. But a Trump victory will extinguish this hope and force them to end the multi-front war.
This may be considered unfair to Biden, who, despite tensions with Netanyahu, has provided much political and military support to Israel since October 7, 2023.
Iran
“The Iranian Supreme Leader,” says Arash Azizi, author of “What the Iranians Want.” Ali Khamenei He may prefer a different president than Trump… In general, it seems that the Iranian regime wants Harris to win.”
He adds that over the past year, the fear of Trump’s return was present in all Iranian media, especially since they had previous experience from Trump’s previous presidency, in terms of his unpredictability, his policy based on maximum pressure, and his rapprochement with Netanyahu.
But this opinion is not universal in Iran, where there is a faction in Tehran that believes that the “pragmatic” Trump will deal more clearly than the “temperamental” Democrats, who suggest the possibility of a settlement, but always end up supporting Israel anyway, Azizi says.
Dr. Sanam Vakil, Deputy Director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at the Chatham House Institute, believes that Tehran does not want to start with the next US president – whoever he may be – in a worse position than the situation is now.
She pointed out that during the past few days, the advisor to the Iranian supreme leader hinted that there is pragmatism in future relations with Washington, and this is a very interesting development in light of the current crisis, considering that “the economic prospects are very bleak. Easing sanctions is the goal of the new president.”
China
in ChinaAs elsewhere, coverage and debate about the US elections are flooding the media and social networks.
Many reports recently have focused on potential unrest within the United States around the elections, citing internal American reports about the possibility of political violence.
However, there is no clear preference for one candidate over the other. This is because Beijing did not see much difference. During his term, Trump ignited a trade war, blamed China for the Covid-19 virus, and launched a controversial campaign led by… FBI Against Chinese economic espionage, he also promised to significantly expand tariffs on China’s products if he returned to The white house.
But while Biden has toned down the rhetoric, he has not actually changed course: he has maintained and in some cases tightened some of Trump’s definitions, and, most importantly, he has explicitly pledged to go to war to defend Taiwan if it is attacked.
During his conversation with Joe Rogan last week, he accused Trump Taiwan By “stealing” the US chip industry, and insinuating that it should pay for protection, topics he has raised in previous interviews.
Regarding these statements, Zhou Fenglian, spokeswoman for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the Chinese State Council, says that these statements question Trump’s commitment to the island.
She added, “Whether the United States is trying to protect Taiwan or harm it, I believe that most of our Taiwanese colleagues have already made a rational judgment, and know very clearly that what the United States seeks is always ‘America First’. The people of Taiwan know that Taiwan at any time could transform… From pawn to neglected child.
