What if there is a recession again in 2023?

The United States faced the pandemic as only that enormous economy can. They earmarked billions of dollars to develop and have anti-Covid-19 vaccines available as soon as they could be developed.

They implemented extraordinary fiscal and monetary programs so that their citizens could alleviate their own crises derived from confinement due to the pandemic. But all of that leaves bills to pay.

The United States is that enormous machine with the ability to quickly correct its deficits and as the world leader in financial markets, it has the dollar that it can manipulate to its best advantage.

Only that the pandemic brought many more consequences than the visible ones. The former are directly related to health, deaths, disabilities and the consequences that have already marked these generations.

But economically, the global paralysis of productive activities caused bottlenecks that were decisive in the recovery in causing, among other things, the inflationary pressures that accompanied the start of the recovery.

The lack of a quick solution to this limited supply established the idea of ​​an environment of higher inflation among US consumers who always maintained good liquidity, first due to government transfers and later due to the economic recovery.

The inflationary panorama was complicated by multiple outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 and by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Mexico had to follow the United States in this process of maintaining a relatively healthy internal market. But no, this regime left its citizens alone and they fell like no other country from the condition of ours. Thus, this country went from citizens in recession to citizens in stagflation.

The United States managed during the past year not only to recover from the 2020 recession, but also to register a good growth rate. Mexico no.

For this country to return to the levels of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) prior to the pandemic, it will be necessary to wait, at least, the rest of the six-year term.

Today, in the United States, with a labor market very close to full employment again, the main concern is to overcome persistent inflation as soon as possible.

That implies taking measures totally opposite to those adopted to overcome the recession of 2020.

That is going to leave an economic bill that today, already anticipated, could be a new recession in 2023.

A scenario of negative results in economic behavior in an economy that has already overcome the crisis caused by confinement and that managed to have high growth rates would be a new recession, which would be very close to the previous one, but certainly after a cycle of rise.

Not in Mexico. The United States could influence the Mexican economy so that it returns to the negative records in its economy before having achieved the recovery from the great recession of 2020.

If this country reaches 2023 still with high levels of inflation, with an economy with insufficient growth rates to recover what was lost and returns to a condition of recession, it will be difficult to avoid a political effect.

It is very clear that this regime works by parishioners, but even the most loyal to these populist models come to demand accountability for the poor conditions of their personal finances.

ecampos@eleconomista.mx