What is Putin doing in Azerbaijan? | Politics

Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, on Sunday, August 18, for a two-day official visit. Putin met with the country's President Ilham Aliyev on the shores of the Caspian Sea, where they discussed issues related to the development of strategic partnership relations and the Russian-Azerbaijani alliance, in addition to discussing current international and regional issues, according to the Azerbaijani state news agency.

The Deversoir Gap, also called Operation Abiri-Lev, was an Israeli operation that took place in the middle of the Suez Canal from 15 to 23 October 1973 during the Yom Kippur War. This incident complicated the course of events because it occurred at the end of the Yom Kippur War, when the Israeli army had managed to encircle the Egyptian Third Field Army.

The American Intelligence Agency revealed important information to Tel Aviv regarding what was known as the “Deversoir Gap,” when the American “SR-71” reconnaissance plane penetrated Egyptian airspace on October 13, 1973, and covered the entire battle front, which allowed Israel to obtain accurate aerial photographs and information about the entire area between the Second and Third Armies, which paved the way for the implementation of the Deversoir Gap operation.

This loophole gave Israel a victory, albeit a moral one, and allowed it to strengthen its position after the image of defeat it suffered on October 6, the moment of the joint attack by the Egyptian and Syrian armies to regain the Suez Canal and the Golan Heights, which Israel had occupied after the 1967 Six-Day War.

President Putin seems to be a good reader of history, and is aware that any flaw in Russia’s backyard could be found in Washington’s “Deversoir loophole.” So what if it comes to the region on the Caspian Sea, the beautiful American dream of establishing its presence there. The United States considers the region to be floating on energy sources, especially liquefied natural gas, and its location is considered strategic to obstruct Putin’s ambition, strike the Chinese “Belt and Road” project, and besiege Iran in its worst enemy, Baku.

The visit was almost normal, like any meeting between two neighboring countries that conclude agreements and seek their interests. But this particular visit, and at this time, cannot be classified as a “routine visit.” It comes after a Russian rift that lasted about six years, as Putin's last visit to Baku was in 2018, and relations between them have witnessed more tensions, especially since Baku has long accused Moscow of siding with Armenia in their conflict over the Karabakh region. The war that lasted for more than a century was resolved by Azerbaijan in September 2023 in its favor with Russian “cover.”

It is not about the partnerships or understandings that took place between the two countries, but about the visit itself and its reading on the political and strategic levels, especially since it came after Russia felt that Yerevan was going against the trend of the countries that were within the scope of the former Soviet Union. The countries of the Caucasus region are considered Russia's backyard, so Putin needs to close all the gaps that could cause it to “burn”, and today it is waging a fierce war in Ukraine, especially after the field development that occurred with the Ukrainian forces penetrating Russian territory in the Kursk region and controlling about 1,150 kilometers.

Yerevan believes that Moscow has let it down against Baku, so Armenia has made the choice to turn west, provoking Russia with the maneuvers it conducted in July./July The past under the name “Eagle Yartenir 2024” with the US forces. This development reflects a new and qualitative pace in Yerevan's rapprochement with the Western system, which could severely damage historical relations with Russia.

Moscow needs this visit to go beyond strengthening its relations with Baku after the divorce with Yerevan. It believes that this visit may prevent America from exploiting the hostility between Baku and Tehran, and prevent it from exploiting a new Deversoir loophole. The United States is strengthening its presence through its partner Israel, which has excellent historical relations with Azerbaijan, as the largest Israeli military spy base is located on its territory on the Iranian border, and Baku is considered one of the largest importers of Israeli weapons.

This gap that Putin is working to fill is also linked to Moscow’s intention to open a path of convergence between Iran and Azerbaijan. Improving relations between the two countries will have a positive impact on the tripartite alliance that was recently established at the expense of Syria between Turkey, Iran and Russia. The good relationship between Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Putin paved Putin’s way to Baku, and may pave the way from Baku to Tehran in a serious attempt to circumvent America’s interests in the region.

The visit is not only about circumventing and closing the gaps, but the gap that bothers Putin is related to Baku’s decision to increase its exports of liquefied natural gas during the current year (2024) to about 24 billion cubic meters to Europe. In doing so, it is benefiting from the increase in European demand in the wake of the Russian-Ukrainian war, and the search by the countries of the old continent for alternative supplies to Moscow’s gas.

Putin may not be able to be frank with Aliyev on this issue, especially since it is within the country's supreme interests, regardless of the good impressions the visit may bring that can be built upon in the future. But Putin may rely on his ally Erdogan to convince Baku to support the two countries' project related to establishing a natural gas export center in Turkey. In this way, Putin will pull the card of Azerbaijani gas exported to Europe and put it in the hands of his Turkish ally to exert greater pressure on the West.

The Caucasus and the Caspian Sea countries are easy areas for the West to open the Deversoir gaps again and work to contain Putin's project to restore the Russian Empire to its former glory. Therefore, this visit may succeed in form, but in substance there are many obstacles facing Moscow on the territory of Azerbaijan, which is witnessing complex relations with Western countries, which may make the task difficult for Putin, especially since he is currently immersed in and around Ukraine, where the war there is witnessing field developments every day.