Aljazeera.net correspondents
18/9/2024–|Last update: 9/18/202409:16 AM (Makkah Time)
Baghdad- The issue of the withdrawal of foreign forces from Iraq has returned to the forefront, after statements made by the Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani During an interview with Bloomberg TV in Baghdad, yesterday, Tuesday, he confirmed that there is no longer a need for the presence of American forces in his country, because they have largely succeeded in defeating theIslamic State“And that he intends to announce a timetable for its withdrawal soon.
Sources told Reuters a few days ago that the plan includes the withdrawal of hundreds of forces from the US-led international coalition by September 2025, and the rest by the end of 2026, noting that the plan has been largely agreed upon, and that it remains to obtain final approval from the two countries and set an official date for announcing it.
The same sources said that the official announcement was scheduled to be issued weeks ago, but was postponed due to the regional escalation linked to the Israeli war on… Gaza Stripand to iron out some remaining details, as the two countries also seek to establish a new consultative relationship that could allow some of the US forces in Iraq After withdrawal.
The agreement, when announced, is likely to represent a political victory for the Iraqi prime minister, who is seeking to balance Baghdad’s position as an ally of both Washington and Tehran, which stand on opposite sides of the Middle East.
The United States has about 2,500 troops in Iraq, in addition to 900 in Syria, as part of the coalition formed in 2014 to fight the Islamic State group, which overran large areas in both countries but was expelled from most of those areas years ago.
Fill the gap
Speaking about Iraq’s capabilities to fill the void after the withdrawal of foreign forces, retired Major General and military affairs expert Imad Alo confirmed that Iraqi military capabilities have developed over the past years, especially in its land forces, and possess technical and military expertise capable of confronting any threat.
He added that as for air capabilities and air defense, “it still needs international support, in order to enhance those capabilities, especially those related to radar systems and confronting hostile targets, and missile systems that cover all areas of threat to Iraq.”
Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Alou said, “The strategic dialogue between Baghdad and Washington has been ongoing since 2020 regarding redrawing the bilateral relationship between them,” indicating that ending the mission of the international coalition was part of those dialogues, as a technical military committee was formed to discuss the file.
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He added that the dialogues led to the formation of 3 committees:
- The first is to assess ISIS’s combat capabilities.
- The other is looking into the needs of the Iraqi security and military forces.
- The third discusses the operational arrangements required for the purpose of coordination and cooperation between the two parties.
Pointing out that the committees have completed their report and study, and the schedule for ending the presence of forces in Iraq was discussed, without explicitly addressing the withdrawal of American forces. He said, “The current situation makes us need more coordination and cooperation with the American side to enhance these capabilities, especially in the field of intelligence and reconnaissance, and all of them need time to be completed.”
Sunni and Kurdish concern
For his part, political analyst Mohammed Harith al-Mutalibi ruled out the withdrawal of American forces even if they agreed with the Iraqi government on this matter, considering that their presence represents “a fundamental and pivotal goal to secure Israel’s eastern front on the one hand, and to continue besieging Iran militarily and politically on the other hand.”
Al-Mutalibi said in his interview with Al Jazeera Net that the Sunni and Kurdish components are concerned about the withdrawal of foreign forces from Iraq, due to the sectarian conflict that occurred in the past periods and caused a demographic change in many areas inside Baghdad and a number of mixed governorates, despite the presence of American forces on the ground.
He added that these reasons created a perception among these components that the American withdrawal means “the disappearance of the policeman who separates the components and maintains the geographical spread of each component,” explaining that there is a fear of “the dictatorship of the majority, which is a justified concern, but things in Iraq proceed according to legal and legislative frameworks, which requires not giving priority to the obsession of anxiety, or adopting it as a criterion for making decisions.”
He also stressed that the price of the withdrawal of coalition forces would be “the great economic collapse of Iraq” through the rise in the dollar exchange rate and the government’s inability to fulfill its obligations towards projects and operational costs. He also expected that it would lead to sectarian conflicts in the northern or central regions of Iraq “with a clear American intelligence plan to force the government to keep those forces,” according to him.
Al-Mutalibi stressed that despite the economic and perhaps security losses from the American withdrawal, the government has a “legal and moral duty towards the Iraqi people and even the Arab and Islamic nations” to restore full sovereignty and end the occupation, saying that “this is the option we support and lean towards in order to achieve economic independence.”
Future of factions
For his part, strategic expert Haider Hamid stressed the ability of the Iraqi forces to “confront the terrorist threat of ISIS,” adding that “what remains is the problem of providing logistical support in terms of intelligence, technical and air efforts in confronting such threats.”
Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Hamid said that the government is required to fill the gaps imposed by the end of the international coalition’s mission, warning of “the danger of Iraq remaining an arena for settling regional scores as long as these problems persist, whether through the presence of Kurdistan Workers’ Party forces as a pretext for Turkish interference in Iraq’s affairs or otherwise.”
He considered that the end of the international coalition mission does not mean the end of the relationship with the United States, “but rather that relationship will be regulated by sustainable security agreements to provide support to our forces,” he said.
Regarding the future of the armed factions, Hamid said that this is one of the concerns that will arise after the withdrawal of international forces, and “the emptiness of the Iraqi arena for Iranian expansion as a step to fill the vacuum, according to the belief of many.”
