Tehran- Although Iran insists that its nuclear program is purely peaceful in nature, its nuclear policy is one of the most controversial issues in the Middle East and the world, and is considered Its nuclear program An integral part of the defensive doctrine, through which the Islamic Republic seeks to achieve multiple goals related to national security, sovereignty and deterrence, within the equation of power and regional balance.
Iranian leaders realize that their nuclear program provides Iran with a strategic pressure card, both internally and externally. Although it expresses no intention of manufacturing nuclear weapons, the technical and scientific capabilities it is developing in this field give it influence that can be used within the framework of comprehensive deterrence, in the face of potential threats from regional and international adversaries.
The Iranian nuclear program began in the 1950s with strategic cooperation between Tehran and Western countries, but this cooperation ended after the victory Iranian Revolution 1979Western companies withdrew from nuclear projects, and the program was frozen for a short period.
With the escalation of the Iraq war and the refusal of countries to supply Iran with weapons, the positions of the leadership of the revolution changed and allowed the resumption of nuclear research. During the nineties, Iran searched for new allies, and Russia cooperated with it, but International Atomic Energy Agency In 2003, it revealed undeclared nuclear facilities, which escalated the differences between Iran and the West.
Latent nuclear deterrence
Iran relies heavily on the concept of deterrence in formulating its defense doctrine. The Iranian deterrence philosophy is based on several factors, including the ability to take strong responses in the event of any aggression, using its advanced missile capabilities or through its regional allies. The nuclear program is part of this system, although Iran constantly emphasizes that it is not seeking to develop a nuclear weapon.
Many analysts see the very existence of Iran’s nuclear program, even if peaceful, as an important strategic deterrent. Potential threats from its adversaries, such as Israel or the United States, contribute to Iran’s desire to develop nuclear capabilities that would enable it to negotiate, as the mere ability to develop nuclear technology is itself a political tool to deter external attacks or pressure.
The Iranian negotiating team's advisor, Mohammad Marandi, confirmed that the Iranian nuclear program is peaceful, and there is no intention to change that under the current circumstances, and that Iran has increased the percentage of uranium enrichment in order to pressure the Western side in the negotiations, adding that at the present time there is no positioning in the military aspect, but increasing the percentage of enrichment in itself has a place in deterrence and pressure on the West.
“If we feel threatened, we may be forced to change things. There is no doubt that Iran is an advanced nuclear country with nuclear technology,” he told Al Jazeera Net, adding that the statements of Kamal Kharrazi, advisor to the Supreme Leader, who said that “Tehran will be forced to change its nuclear doctrine if it is exposed to an existential threat from Israel” must be taken seriously.
As international security researcher Aref Dehghandar explains, “Given the transitional period in the international system, its chaotic nature, the chaotic environment in the Middle East, and the ever-increasing threats from Israel, Iran has adopted a strategy of latent nuclear deterrence, i.e., a state that has the knowledge, scientists, technology, and uranium to manufacture nuclear weapons.”
Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, he added that these steps are taken for political, religious, economic, security, or informational reasons, but Iran is not about to manufacture nuclear weapons. This type of deterrence also gives countries the ability to start producing nuclear weapons as quickly as possible, and to obtain an atomic bomb if they are threatened or attacked.
The researcher explains that possessing a “latent nuclear deterrent” does not conflict with international law, and that Iran, which has achieved this capability under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, continues to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency and continues its nuclear activities.
Dehghandar refers to the fatwa Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei Regarding the prohibition of the production, possession and use of nuclear weapons, he explained that Iran does not seek to manufacture nuclear weapons in the current situation, but rather intends to control Israel's aggressive behavior and obtain more concessions from the West in possible future negotiations with the United States of America, using the strategy of “latent nuclear deterrence.”
He adds that Iran's pursuit of this strategy began after October 7, 2023, but became more intense as a result of the limited conflict between Iran and Israel last April, as Israel's threats had a major impact on Iranian officials' interest in its strategy.
National and regional security
On the other hand, political scientist Barham Pour Ramadan says that Iran's nuclear program is purely peaceful and can be placed in the context of national security and national interest. It is also related in one way or another to regional security and aspires to achieve security and stability in the region through peace, in his opinion.
He added in his interview with Al Jazeera Net that Iran has a peaceful nuclear program, but if the regional and international situation changes and Iran moves to place its nuclear program within the context of the defensive doctrine, then it must decide what its nuclear deterrence will be, whether it will be regional only or general and international.
He explains that “when we talk about regional situations, we mean the Israeli aggression on Palestine, and the geopolitical issues between Iran and its neighbors, specifically the Gulf states, but these matters will not rise to the level of a threat for Iran. The real threat is the regional war with Israel, which may make Iran think about changing its defense doctrine.”
However, the researcher ruled out that Iran would change its defense doctrine in the near future, given the internal, regional and international situations, in addition to the fact that Iran has good pressure tools on the diplomatic level that can respond to any circumstance, adding that “if Iran is given the choice between continuing the current situation and a regional war, it will choose to remain in the current situation with some observations.”
Many analysts believe that the Iranian nuclear program goes beyond politics and deterrence to more complex levels, as it represents a technological development and a symbol of national strength and independence. Many Iranians, whether in power or on the street, consider it evidence that Iran is capable of achieving scientific and technological progress despite the sanctions imposed on it.
This national dimension constitutes an important part of the Iranian regime’s discourse, which uses the nuclear program to enhance its domestic popularity and promote the idea that Iran is strong and incapable of submitting to external pressures. It uses it as a non-military weapon, but it is effective in enhancing Iran’s power in the face of threats and achieving Iran’s strategic and domestic goals alike.