Related Post
Beirut- Waiting for a reply Hizb allah On the assassination of his military commander Fouad Shukrwhich occurred in Southern suburbs Beirut, at the end of last July, witnessed a noticeable military escalation on the southern Lebanese border with the Israeli side, in a way that reflects the heat of the field situation and the possibility of the war expanding.
As part of this escalation, an Israeli aircraft launched a raid on a two-story house in the Harat al-Nadi neighborhood in the town of Mayfadoun yesterday afternoon, Tuesday. The Lebanese Ministry of Health said that the raid resulted in the martyrdom of 5 people, who were later found to be Hezbollah members. This is considered the first targeting in the town, which is about 30 kilometers from the border.
For its part, Hezbollah announced that, in response to the Israeli attacks that included the southern villages and their homes, it targeted a building used by occupation soldiers in the “Avivim” settlement, and a gathering of soldiers near the “Birket Reisha” site with “Burkan” missiles.
He also launched an air attack with a squadron of suicide drones on the command headquarters. Golani Brigade And the “Egoz” unit in the “Sharaga” barracks, north of Acre And he achieved confirmed hits in both.
In his speech delivered on Tuesday at the memorial service for Commander Fouad Shukr, Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed… Hassan Nasrallah “The decisive response is coming,” he said, explaining that the delay is part of a strategy of psychological pressure on Israel, but he pointed out that the nature of the response may not necessarily lead to the outbreak of a large-scale war in Lebanon and the region.
More painful response
For his part, political analyst Dr. Ali Matar told Al Jazeera Net that the recent responses come in multiple and escalating contexts, but they are not considered the final response to Shukr’s assassination. He explained that these perceptions suggest that the expected response will be broader and more painful, while stressing the importance of maintaining sanity and avoiding giving the Israelis the opportunity to slip into a comprehensive war.
Matar considered that Hezbollah's strikes aim to reshape the image of deterrence and emphasize the equations of power, which prevents the war that Netanyahu seeks from occurring. If the Israelis insist on taking reckless steps, the resistance will be prepared to fight without restrictions.
Regarding Nasrallah's speech, Matar said, “It can be considered a determinant of the future.” He addressed the circumstances of the current war, its course, and the potential transformations on the regional and international levels, and stressed the need to understand these circumstances and changes.
In his opinion, the speech moved away from talking about a comprehensive war and moved to presenting options within acceptable responses, and placed the Israelis before two choices: either accept the current situation with the possibility of mutual responses without escalation into a comprehensive war, or act rashly, which may lead to a response that deters them.
Matar saw that Nasrallah's emphasis on the necessity of response makes it clear that it is a settled issue, but in terms of its nature it will be based on reason and wisdom, while taking care of the safety and protection of the people, which reassures the environment and the people that the response will not lead to a comprehensive war, but at the same time creates a state of fear and psychological pressure among the Israelis.
clear messages
For his part, Brigadier General Dr. Hisham Jaber described the escalation between Hezbollah and Israel yesterday, Tuesday, as not out of the ordinary. However, he stressed that the targets that Hezbollah struck in Nahariya were of great strength, and carried clear messages that the party might start targeting the Israeli coast.
In his analysis of the military scene, Jaber explained that the type of these attacks differs from the targets in the past, and despite that, precision missiles have not been used yet, indicating that targeting Haifa and Tel Aviv with precision missiles could cause a disaster for Israel.
The brigadier general confirmed to Al Jazeera Net that the recent and escalating attacks between Hezbollah and Israel, especially after Israel struck targets in Meifadoun in Nabatieh, destroyed a house and killed Hezbollah members, raises a central question: “Is this the beginning of a new phase or will it remain within the ceiling of the current war?”
Jaber pointed out that Israel wants a large-scale war, whether through the Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Or the Minister of Finance Bezalel Smotrich And other officials, but the ability of the United States to put pressure on Netanyahu to prevent him from taking reckless steps remains an important issue.
Jaber considered that Hezbollah is not seeking to reach a comprehensive war, and that the expected strikes in the next two days will remain precise and painful, in response to the assassination of the leader Fouad Shukr, but they will not be a justification for opening a broad war.
The Brigadier General also saw that the current situation is characterized by uncertainty and tension between the people and the United Nations and “UNIFIL“And foreign embassies, considering that the embassies' plans to evacuate their citizens are a positive thing, but the implementation of these plans has not yet been observed, as the embassies' advice to their citizens to leave Lebanon and Israel in light of the current state of tension is a natural thing.
Jaber stressed that Hezbollah's strike will inevitably happen, but the main question is how to respond to it. It is not Hezbollah's response that will ignite a large-scale war, but rather the Israeli response to it, which, if it exceeds reasonable limits, may be the reason for opening the door to war.
exchange of blows
For his part, Ali Haidar, an expert in Israeli affairs, confirmed to Al Jazeera Net that general estimates do not indicate the possibility of a comprehensive war with Hezbollah or in the region in general, because this scenario is beyond Israel’s ability to bear, and the decision regarding it is taken in Washington and not in Tel Aviv, which will be concerned with direct involvement in defending Israel.
Haidar explained that it is difficult for Israel not to respond to any reaction by Hezbollah. Accordingly, the nature, size, arena and objectives of the Israeli response will in turn determine the nature of the counter-response by Hezbollah. In this context, it is expected that we will witness an exchange of “harsh but focused strikes,” with both sides trying to avoid targeting civilians.
Haidar pointed out that Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah had defined some general features of the response, but he kept many details vague to be part of the tactic of confrontation and surprise for the enemy. It is possible to estimate that Hezbollah is seeking a “strong, effective and influential” response.
Haidar pointed out that Nasrallah's last speech, yesterday, Tuesday, carried a message to the enemy regarding Hezbollah's ability to destroy many important facilities in the northern regions within an hour or half an hour, which indicates the nature of the severe blows that the Israeli side may be exposed to if its attacks exceed certain limits.
The expert in Israeli affairs confirmed that “we are currently witnessing an escalation on the southern Lebanon front, not as a reaction to the assassination of Mr. Shukr, but as part of the escalation of the confrontation in general,” which is affected by a number of factors, the most important of which are the nature and extent of the attacks in the Lebanese arena and the developments related to the Gaza Strip.
